Andrey Zagorsky

Russia Today: Many are saying though that this issue is doomed, it is not getting off to a very good start, with the problems with Lithuania, Poland and indeed the Kosovo problem. Also, disagreements between Russia and West about what to do about it all? What do you think is going to happen over the next two days?

Andrey Zagorsky: Well, indeed earlier this week on Monday some of the member states of the EU asked to postpone the meeting in Samara which was looking like a crisis to all of them but rational overwhelmed by saying we need to talk exactly in the bad times with each other, not to postpone, not to leave things so open. What we know now is that Samara meeting is going to take place. We have to pay a price for this. It is probably going to be a summit meeting of lost opportunities on some of the crucial issues which we had on the agenda between Russia an the EU. But we also look forward to some progress in the secondary areas which have not been so much in the focus, it is very much on the balance of whether we have progress or we have not.

RT: Russia has been playing down the fact that the problems are being. How grave are these concerns? Are the problems can be bridged do you think?

A.Z.: On the one hand we certainly have a wide agenda. We have many issues and many areas of co-operation on which we have the divergencies, including WTO accession, including policies towards common neighbourhood, energy security is one of them etc. These are not definitely unbridgeable controversies; we need to spend our time to solve those issues. Certainly, when particular developments come into being and disturb the relations it is not the best time to solve those issues, so it would take a time.

RT: So, you do not think that we come out of this summit with a partnership agreement between Russia and the EU at this stage?

A.Z.: We certainly are not going to launch negotiations on the new agreement, it is clear. Moscow is not giving in with the issue of over flight rights for European companies over the Russian air space and the EU is not likely to move ahead on the WTO accession for Russia. Three areas which have been the major areas of expected progress. Still we might have progress in climate protection issues. We are likely to have a progress on visa facilitation. We do expect agreements to enter into force in June this year and some other issues as well.

RT: What is in it for both sides? What is in it for Russia joining a partnership with Europe? What is wrong if things just stay where they are at the moment?

A.Z.: I think we still have to identify the essence of the partnership and what both sides do expect. The expectation both sides had in the 1990s certainly might have been wrong and we are now in the process to find and to negotiate a new basis. This is not an easy procedure and it will take some time. Russia behaves as a sovereign state as it emphasises. Consequence of sovereignty is very strong there. We want a partnership in economics, we want a partnership in international security issues. We need to find the way how to make this partnership to work. It is not easy.

RT: And what is in it for Europe? Well, energy, I guess energy security, because the West is very much reliant on Russia for energy, is it not?

A.Z.: Yes, energy is important although it is not a single issue which is on the agenda in economic terms between Russia and the EU. I think we might have some progress at least with regard of notifying at early stage each other if any problem will be forthcoming in supply. This was a topic from January this year between Russia and the EU. The EU also emphasises that Russia is indispensable partner in talking about international security issues, mainly emphasising such questions like Middle East negotiations, Russia is a part of the quartet, emphasising the Iran nuclear dossier on which we have a very critical close positions. At the same time we do have disputes on other issues. You have mentioned Kosovo already which is going to be one of the most controversial foreign policy issue during this summit. So it is a part of the process of bringing our positions closer to each other to converge our policies. Summits are only one stage of this process though an important one.

RT: Of course many of the EU new members are former Soviet block countries. These are countries with many of which Russia has problems at the moment, thinking about Poland and the meat import, thinking of Estonia and the removal of the Bronze Soldier monument and Lithuania with the threat of energy being cut off. Do you think there will ever be easy alliance between Russia and all those former Soviet block countries?

A.Z.: First of all these are certainly disputes which are currently on the surface which certainly have impact on the general relations because those countries definitely want to use their rights in consensus building in the EU to have their interests present in the common position. An important issue certainly is it is not all former Soviet bloc countries which are on the critics side in regard of Russia. We have different relations with many other countries. It is not a predicament that any new EU member state would have a difficult relation with Russia. So that is why we need to think over how we can alleviate the disputes with the countries concerned. How we can improve relations and also it would be very wrong to assume that it is just those issues which do spoil relations with Russia. Again we have a wide range of issues on the agenda on which we need to bridge over the divergences which are concerned, not only the new EU member states, but also the others.

RT: And generally, what is your view? Is it just a talking shop or is there a will to find a way forward?

A.Z.: I think the message was very clear this week when Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Foreign Minister of Germany was coming over saying: “we need to talk to each other”. I expect an open talk to take place during this meeting. And exactly many signs in trying to downplay controversies and emphasise the convergences and other issues indicate that both sides need and want to find the way out and want to improve the relations. Well, it is not to take place exactly at this meeting, at least in terms of agreements to be reached, but it is a good chance to take an interval to have an open talk and see where we go now.

Earlier, Andrey Zagorsky spoke to Russia Today on  the main issues in the relations between Russia and the European Union.

Russia Today: President Putin said that Russia does not have conflicts with the EU - just slight disagreements. What do you read into that and also the fact that Mr. Steinmeier had  to make that last minute visit? Was that a sign,  that  he was actually very worried about  Europe's relationship with Russia?

Andrey Zagorsky: The relationship certainly is not the best for the moment and as EU trade Commissioner Mandelsohn mentioned three weeks ago, the relations between Russia and the EU is at the lowest point for the last 15 years. It’s not a hostile relationship anyway, and definitely the task for Steinmeier was to save the meeting in Samara. 

RT:  And positive signs from Russia - they are without comments from President Putin - saying there are slight disagreements and they're open for dialog?

A.Z.: Yes, we do have issues on which we disagree, but there are some others issues which produce some progress.

RT: How important is the new treaty between the EU and Russia, if it does have a go-ahead?

A.Z.: Both sides believe it is important, both sides agreed in 2005 that they need to modernise the previous treaty which expires this year. We need to upgrade our relationship in different areas, update it in different areas, but at the same time, we agreed exactly a year ago that we would not hurry and we would take out time to negotiate  a new treaty, and we just extend the old one unless we have a new in place. So we all hope that negotiations will start earlier than they are going to, but there is no drama in this. I think drama is more in the inability of Russia and the EU to agree to launch the negotiations. It is more of a problem than just the need for a new treaty.

RT: Once these talks do begin are they likely, as we are seeing from President Putin’s statement,  to be cordial?

A.Z.: We will see because there are several important issues at dispute between Russia and the European Union, because Moscow reiterates that we will have no agreement on opening the airspace of Russia free of charge for the flights of  European companies. The EU is stalling the progress of Russia's accession to WTO.   Many issues which can be seen as working, but definitely the atmosphere is not the best one for the progress.

RT:  What are the other sticking points as far as Russia is concerned?

A.Z.: Well, there are three most important which are expected to produce some problems in Samara. There are certainly many others, because Russia also has an indirect dispute with some European nations on the ABM systems of the U.S., because this dispute is also a part of the Russia-NATO relationship, and most members of the EU are part of this. We have disputes on Kosovo as well, which has been the most burning issue for the last months, etc. So, there are many issues which are disputed.

RT: What about Poland? That is another country Russia has been arguing with.

A.Z.: There are three countries which now basically oppose the beginning of negotiations. Poland wants Russia to firstly cancel the meat embargo by the Russian side. Russia wants Poland to cancel the embargo on negotiations first. So, we just do not agree on the sequence of the steps to be taken. More recently, Lithuania joined Poland being skeptical of Russia – EU relations saying they will not agree on the negotiations, unless Moscow restores the oil supply which was stopped in August last year. And certainly the most recent crisis in Russia – Estonia relations contributed to this dispute.

RT: What is your view on the future of EU – Russia relations? Are they willing bad fellows, if you like, or they just getting together out of necessity?

A.Z.: Well, we are natural partners, especially in economics. Russia is the third biggest economic partner for the EU. The EU is the biggest partner for the Russian Federation. We both believe that co-operation between the EU and Russia is crucial for many international crisis areas as well. At the same time, we do believe that this relationship for some time to come is going to be based on a contract which means we agree on what we agree, and we disagree on what we disagree.

Earlier, Andrey Zagorsky commented for Russia Today on the visit of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to Italy.

Russia Today: Russian President Vladimir Putin starts his official visit to Italy today. How would you describe the relations between Russia and Italy right now?

Andrey Zagorsky: Well, this relationship is definitely going through the period of growth. Now this is the second meeting between Vladimir Putin and Romano Prodi for the last two months, for Romano Prodi visited Moscow in January 2007. Certainly it is not only because of the pretty full agenda of relations which is going to be discussed, especially tomorrow in the intergovernmental consultations but also despite of the fact that Romano Prodi is new in the office of Prime Minister, both have met each other long ago in the times when Romano Prodi was the President of  the European Commission. They have spent many hours discussing the Russian-EU relationship agenda. Especially in a time when many of the old partners of Mr Putin are leaving their offices, like President Jacques Chirac in France or UK Prime Minister Tony Blair. Romano Prodi becomes a reliable old friend in the new office who is going to be a very important partner of Mr Putin in exactly this period of time.

RT: What kind of outcome we can expect from this visit?

A.Z.: Apart from consultations on major international issues, certainly I think the most important day is going to be tomorrow when both sides are going to discuss in inter-ministerial consultations and the most important issues of the bilateral agenda, particularly co-operation in field of energy.

RT: We have a couple of hot topics on the agenda as well: Iran's nuclear problem, status of Kosovo, energy security. What do you think is going to dominate the talks?

A.Z.: I think that a lot of time will be spent on each of the issues though I would not expect breakthroughs on any of them. Italy certainly has stakes in many of those issues: definitely on Iran, definitely on the Middle East, especially on Kosovo because Italy is a part of the contact group on Kosovo where some major powers are discussing the future of Kosovo. However the positions of Russia and European countries are different at the moment and both sides are waiting for what will come of the consultations by Martti Ahtisaari on Kosovo issue.

RT: Today President Putin is to meet Pope Benedict XVI. As we all may already know the relationship between the Catholic church and Russian Orthodox church are not at their best right now. Some see this as an attempt, that he is going to try to patch the relationships. Can we really expect anything groundbreaking from this meeting?

A.Z.: Reportedly, they are going to discuss the issue of establishing relationship between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Church, including the issue of the Catholics in the Russian Federation, as such. The relationship, as you have said, are not exactly the best at the moment. I wouldn't expect any fundamental breakthrough. Although this is not the first time President Putin is taking the mission of facilitating inter-confessional dialogue and even though the effect wasn't always immediate, it's going to help the relationship between both Churches.

Earlier, Andrey Zagorsky shared with Russia Today his views concerning the controversial bill on WW II monuments finally approved by the Estonian parliament.

Russia Today: Why is the Estonian parliament so insistent on relocating the monument?

Andrey Zagorsky: I am sure the law itself certainly was intended to be much more comprehensive and more complex because it would not allow to erect monuments for Nazis legally, as all Soviet forces in Estonia, or would allow to remove them. Unfortunately, exactly after the clashes on May 9 last year the whole public debate in Estonia and the across-the-border debate between Moscow and Tallinn got concentrated almost exclusively on the Soviet symbols and on the point of the monument. I think at the earlier stage, if we did not have such a strong public debate on the issue, and if we did not have the elections in Estonia forthcoming, we could think over a wise compromise, turning the place into memorial which would be devoted to all victims of those years. But unfortunately, the public debate went the away it did and it got to the point we are now.

RT: In an interview with a Latvian Newspaper a few months ago you said that Russia's President only thinks about the Baltic States a few times a year But now that the Russian authorities seem pretty upset about this monument issue, what might be the consequences now of this row for the relations between the two countries?

A.Z.: I would still say the same, because there is a widespread belief, both in Estonia and Latvia, that the single most important issue for Russian politics would be the Baltic States, getting them back etc., but I am saying that the President of Russia doesn’t think everyday of the Baltic States. That basically means it is not the most important issue in  Russian politics. Just look at the agenda of Putin's recent statements. So, we have regularly an issue unfortunately very much negatively-loaded, like the last one, which brings the bad relations between Moscow and Tallinn, Moscow and Riga, to the attention of the public, this comes down after the event is over, and I hope it will improve at a later stage.

RT: The Estonian President has said that this goes against the country’s constitution, and if that would be the case, if there anything he can do to stop it?

A.Z.: Well this, in any case, could cause a delay in enacting the law. We will have to see what the outcome is going to be. Hopefully, after the elections, the emotions around the issue will go down and a thoughtful solution will be possible. But, basically, I think it will take time and significant improvement of relations to get accommodated to the very simple and very human issue that we need to commemorate all the victims of those times, whoever they were: Soviets, Estonians, Germans or whoever else.

Earlier Andrey Zagorsky, political analyst joined Russia Today to comment on Angela Merkel's visit to Russia.

Mr Zagorsky says it's no big surprise that the major part of the talks will be dedicated to Russia-EU relations.

“These talks are going to be heavily dominated by the issues which Germany has on the agenda for its presidency in the European Union, although we have seen clearly that the German Chancellor’s meeting with the Russian president was meant for discussing the international agenda, not just Russia-Germany relations agenda," Mr Zagorskt said.

The analyst continued: “One of the burning issues is energy co-operation between the EU and Russia, largely because of the surprise this winter when oil supply was interrupted through Belarus, but also because energy is a stumbling bloc on the way to start negotiations between Russia and the European Union on the new partnership agreement.”

“Also Kosovo is going to be a top issue in the negotiations, because of today’s elections in Serbia. After the elections Martti Ahtisaari, former president of Finland, is going to announce his proposal for Kosovo, and this will be a big issue for Russia and European Union as well,” the expert suggested.

Mr Zagorsky also thinks Ms Merkel has other issues on her mind which should be tackled.

“Definitely for Ms Merkel herself, the most important point of the agenda is the Middle East, because she is putting it as the number one issue for the German presidency in the EU. She was last week in the U.S., largely talking about resuming the Middle East quartet, including Russia, and she wants President Putin to endorse the initiative, and Russia to join the quartet again. This is certainly not the least controversial issue,” continued Mr Zagorsky.

RT’s guest thinks Angela Merkel will have to mediate on the stances  of all the EU members during the talks.

“There are nuances and differences in the position of different states, For example, there will be a difference between Poland’s and Germany’s thinking about energy co-operation with Russia. We need to see one important thing however. Probably Ms Merkel, as the Chancellor, would not have said in January that the interruption of supply was unacceptable, but she was supposed to say that on behalf of the European Union, and she did,” Mr Zagorsky commented.

The expert sees Germany’s current presidency in the European Union as a good and promising sign for relations between the organisation and Russia.

“The good thing of Germany presiding the EU now is that Germany is really seeking for solutions. For instance, Ms Merkel doesn’t come to talk just about energy. She comes with an idea of establishing an early warning system that would allow both sides to be aware of possible interruptions in energy supply, thus reassuring both sides that no big surprises would be coming again,” he argued.

With enough effort, Mr Zagorsky thinks, Germany will manage to outline a new EU-Russia partnership agreement, which is one of the key issues on the EU agenda now.

“I think it’s the ultimate goal the Germans have set for themselves for the presidency. The negotiations themselves could take much longer, and actually we already agreed last year, in May, that we will take our time, because there is no pressure for the new agreement. The old one ends later this year, but it will be renewed on an annual basis. The Germans have set an ambitious goal to start negotiations that would last for longer, and probably they are a good EU member who can do that,” the expert thinks.