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GET IT OFF YOUR CHEST - Who are the U.S. AMD in Europe REALLY aimed at?

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IP November 21, 2008, 09:02: Michael, I'm not a physicist and you are probably not either, do you therefore justify the use of chemical and nuclear weapons?! Are you suggesting its ok to kill human life on the continent?! Sounds EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE to me and I beleive to other participants of this blog!!!
Are you aware of the fact that even deep underground tests of nuclear bombs caused lots of cancer and death in nearby villages and they still suffer regardles that over 20-30 have passed?
Obviously, you would not see such reports readily available. Do you know that you cant even eat anything thats grown on the infected soil for years?!!
What if it gets exploded on your soil? Will it make you feel different?! I hope it does!!!
Michal November 20, 2008, 19:37: Dear DD,

This would be the same as saying that nobody will dare to shoot polish military plane if it was flying over Kremlin ;D.

If there is some plane that didn`t identify itself before entering some other country airspace - the air defense forces have not only right but the duty to bring it down - this is of course as a last resort solution.

Well when You compare crippled US economy to blooming (not really) russian economy, then You can see that US is still far from being bankrupt. There was a change of priorities but was is a well known in US history - that strategic issues does not change whetever democrats or the republicans are ruling. Also there are voices that Obama will be keeping this issue in a stalemate just to show that he will not be passive to russian blackmail (and we can agree that Iskanders are a sort of blackmail I hope - not a military decision). And as far as I know all NATO representants agreed on the AMD plan on the last meeting.

Actually I think that abandoning the AMD as a whole idea is very good - BUT if Russia also will abandon it`s own AMD program which is the A-135 system (and in contrast to US AMD it is operational) - and Mr. Lavrov said it is out of the question.

Not only from logistic point of view, but also technically deploying Iskanders could be very difficult - Russia was stricken by the crisis more than any other nation, and the bill for the additional funding of army modernisation is pretty dead now. Roboteksport has financial problems, and for now there is only one Iskander battery not even fully operational - deploying 8 to 10 batteries (which are not even in production by now) in Kaliningrad sounds really pompous nowadays.
DD November 19, 2008, 13:06: Dear Michal,
Ok, if you say so then I wish you are right! But I have the feeling nobody will dare to shoot down a Russian Military transporter.
About no AMD's, I refer to statements of the new US administration to come, who don't consider this matter as "high urgent" and will firstly study the benefits of this project.
Regarding the crippling US-economy, US-debts, the pressure of big Nato-players within the EU to abandon these missile plans, makes me assume that Obama will get rid of the Bush-Cheney plans to go ahead with the AMD's.
This is just my rational opinion, not actual facts.
I hope I'm right, because we don't need another cold war in Europe.
And as I said before, I'm glad if Poland upgrades its military potential with latest Nato material. But US-placed and controlled AMD's in Europe are unnecessary & dangerous, I hope you understand this.
Greetings kolega,
DD.
Michal November 18, 2008, 19:42: Dear DD,

No they can`t - just look at the map - maybe Sweden can give permission for military transport in their airspace but I don`t think so. And we already discussed about sea transport - just look at the map and You can see which countries have sea zones through this route. And transporting those rockets in secret would be even worse - if found they will be confiscated. Dunno why but You seem dissapointed ;).

Kaliningrad is a pretty compromised territory - everything that is there is already mapped, identified and targeted. Actually in the age of gps and fifth generation military equipment it is extremly hard to hide a ballistic missle launcher - it is not just a car with a big missle on back (as they sometimes show on RT) but a whole platform of vehicles that can be easily spotted and destroyed with proper means.

Much more propable scenario is that Iskanders will be deployed in one of the russian bases in Belarus near polish border - Poland has adequate and equally painful response for that. Also they can of course dismantle Iskanders to little pieces, go through border with this junk and assemble them in Kaliningrad :>.

I didn`t hear those news that there will be no AMD - any sources? Don`t count Sarkozy speech as AMD is not part of the EU or NATO but bilateral pacts between Poland and US. Also the bill is already signed and as pacta sum servanta rule - if US will pull out then there will be compensations from their side - either way is good.
Michal November 17, 2008, 21:05: Dear IP,

I agree on Your opinion about chemical weapons but disagree about nuclear weapons - radiation in Chernobyl was thousand times stronger than from a typical nuclear bomb, and ten thousand times stronger than a typical hydrogen bomb (hydrogen bombs are actually much cleaner in terms of radiation effect compared to nuclear ones).

If the nuclear warhead is hit with a particle impactor the damage should be minimal (compared to full atomic explosion) as it would be (of course it depends on technology) circa 40-50kg of radioactive material - not much compared to tens of tons which vapored from Chernobyl.
DD November 17, 2008, 19:14: Michal,
Can't they fly arround them?? :-)
Or by sea from St-Petersburg to Kaliningrad, shipped in containervessel or military vessel? Who will know what or when!
Besides, we can be glad if these missiles won't be placed in neither country. About the military contracts, I believe Poland has the very right to ask for latest Nato materials, Patriots, F22, tanks...
Michal November 17, 2008, 13:48: Dear DD,

Well as You know without Poland`s agreement there wouldn`t be another start of those talks - because Russia made a fair offer, and let`s hope it will stay this way. I am actually more interested in military contracts that came with the missle shield than the shield itself. And I dont care about iskanders that much either - there are already other types missles aimed at Poland from Russia and Kaliningrad both - few iskanders doesn`t do much difference (and You must produce them first) - especially when You now what is located on the polish side of border with Kaliningrad.

As I wrote before (I don`t know if You missed that) Russia can`t use military transport (land or air) over Lithuania or Poland - there is permission needed in the same style as NATO transports its troops to Afghanistan via Russia`s permission, or as Turkey refused giving permission US transports to Iraq before the war. And about the sea - this must come through lithuanian, estonian, latvian and polish sea zone. So there is actually no way to do that.
IP November 17, 2008, 04:36: Dear bloggers! Lets concentrate on the REAL THREAT that these AMDs pose to the safety of life as a whole, to the people of same Poland and Europe to start with! Is anyone of you aware of the fact that nuclear and chemical weapons not only cause immediate death but retain this ability for a number of years! In some cases the effects may last for up to 20 or even 100 years! Is the US administration so stupid that it cannot estimate the possible radiation damage?! Really, you've got to be cretinous not to!
The destruction efects will be much worse than those of the previous WW1 and WW2 together!
Example: remember the effects of Chernobyl disaster, which went far beyond the region of Ukraine!!!
DD November 16, 2008, 22:29: Kolega Michal,
I see you very difficult can hide your dissapointment in the course of the events, the prospect of not having US-missiles on your land, no Iskanders in Kaliningrad and more worse the start of an EU-Russia partnership!
But please, I don't know what atlas you looked at, but Russia can easily bring over their missiles by warship since Kaliningrad is located at the sea. Or they can use military air-transport. Who will stop them in either case??
It seems your deep dissapointment is making you write nonsense.
Greetings, DD
Michal November 15, 2008, 21:18: I forgot to mention one thing - Russia doesn`t posses ability to plant those missles in Kaliningrad - it is just a bluff, and any person from the military knows it - this is why there is no reaction from NATO - because Russia`s threat is just bull.

Look at the map of Kaliningrad - one word - LANDLOCKED. There is even a second word - SEALOCKED, and third word even - AIRLOCKED. Tu put something from Russia to Kaliningrad you must cross lithuanian or polish border on land, on the sea or in the air. So if Russia wants to plant Iskander missles in Kaliningrad then it must gently and very politely ask Poland or Lithuania for permission :).

If Russia tries to smuggle those weapons they can be be destroyed or confiscated - oh it is even right according to international law to do so as it will be an illegal weapons smuggling.
NickF November 14, 2008, 22:22: WHO ARE THE U.S. AMD IN EUROPE REALLY AIMED AT?

Europe is the real target.

Fortunately today, Russian & French presidents in the name of peace in Europe, condemned that plan. Hopefully it will be abandoned & forgotten forever.

Thanks
Michal November 13, 2008, 00:50: Dear Johnny

You asked a very good question - why the ABM is in Poland whereas it is already in other NATO countries? This is by basically speaking - every ballistic missle has usualy three stages - first one is for lift-off, second is for flight, and third is with the warhead. ABM could intercept missle only when it is in the second stage - first one is too fast, and the third will be difficult to intercept because it could contain multiple warheads or decoys. When You could draw a line on the map from Tehran to US west coast You can see the flight will go directly through Poland in the propable missle second stage. This is really the only reason why.

The argument about ABM in Germany that couldn`t be fired is also wrong because the US bases with ABM are technically on the american soil there - there is no german juristiction there. The only people who will be shooting will be Americans.

Also China or Russia aren`t really nervous about ABM shields. First China doesn`t have first strike capability with their nuclear forces - it is only a reaction force and it is enough to easily overwhelm any ABM system. Second Russia got A-135 system around Moscow which is now much more potent than systems with ABM capability owned by US or any other country. This is more about US presence in the post Warsaw Pact countries, and fear that Russia will be encircled which is the fuel of military paranoids in Moscow.
Johnny November 10, 2008, 05:28: Ok one more thing to think about…
Poland can join whatever team they want, NATO, who cares, so they have a history, they feel they need to be protected, that’s fine, no problem, these people just don’t like each other, ok.

But just remember that Bush has the I.Q. of a Pit-Bull, the man is not very bright, place US soldiers there if you want, they just about in every other country anyway, one more is not going to make a difference, but don’t put 2 super powers missiles 6 seconds from each other.

So now Russia is nervous, and China is nervous and they know it’s a proxy super power in Poland, and they only have 2 seconds to respond to a nuclear attack.

When a Polish kid shoots up a damn fire cracker, don’t be surprised at all if a missiles now jump out of Russia and China on their way to blow every USA city off the face of the earth, and it comes back just as hard.

Europe, its just stupid, you creating too much margin for human error.
Johnny November 9, 2008, 23:17: Hi Michal…
I probably need to get corrected on the details, I’m not from Europe, and in fact I wasn’t really interested in politics at all until this planet went nuts on us ;)

I may be wrong in detail, thanks, because that then even raises a bigger question!
If UK, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, and Turkey, have AMD, surely the USA could say… hey guys, listen, if Iran does shoot a missile over this way (that they haven’t made yet), can you guys stop it… surely they could?

And why not ask Russia to help as well?
Its definitely not in Russia’s interests either if a “rogue state” fires missiles into Europe.

I maybe wrong in detail, but something stinks…
Perhaps Germany wont let the USA fire a missile without approval, whereas Poland is going to allow a proxy system with the “go” button in Washington?
Something has to be different… what is it?

You know the problem with the news today, is that it never reports “why”, have you ever noticed that?
I think most of the news coming out of these channels just doesn’t make sense.

WHY… tell me WHY… even with 9/11, they never said WHY… it was just “terrorists”.
Everyone is a damn “terrorist” nowadays… if you look at Bush sideways you a goddamn terrorist.

This is how I think, and I’ll lay it out and you can rip it to bits, because I think we need to guess because the NEWS is not really telling us… WHY

For example…

== Congo ==
Officially…
It’s just a bunch of mad Africans and ethnic clashes.
What I think…
The future of all computer chips needs the raw materials from a very wealthy mineral rich African country.
China signed a deal to develop the country, and mine the minerals.
And suddenly it went mad.
What really worries me is when I see UN troops shaking hands with the rebels.
You can read between the lines now…

== Financial Crisis, Rising East West tension ==
Officially…
The Russians are bad bad socialists…
What I think…
The USA and UK have been totally defeated BY CAPATALISM.
The new SUPER CAPATALISTS, China/Taiwan/Japan/UAE have beaten the OLD WORLD CAPATALISTS.
Why they don’t attack China and call them socialists, is because they owe China about 5 trillion dollars.
If China sold the debt, the USA/UK banking systems would collapse completely.

The Russian thing is more complex… the central banks in the west are NOT owned by the people, they in private hands.
Private people actually own the USA and the UK.

These bankers will only leave Russia alone when Russia sells its central bank to them.
Because then it doesn’t matter, if the UK and the USA sink, they will make money out of Russia… and the bonus is that once they control it all like in the UK/USA they can stimulate nationalism and put pressure on China.

The tension is not between democracy and socialism; it’s between the countries that are controlled by private individuals and countries where the governments own the central banks.
The west is getting all - aggressive because it’s getting ready to fight for its bankers, not its country.
Bankers don’t care about wars, because they reset debt and they finance them.

When I watch the news and I see the western channels getting all patriotic and celebrating war heroes, an antagonizing Russia… I fear for our planet, and the people that are getting manipulated.

Watch out for ideals, bankers use them to turn friends into enemies, is what I think.
I think Russia and China are in terrible danger.

The world bankers need to add (own) China and Russia to their portfolio or else they get beaten.
There is a way to fix this financial crisis, and I’m not kidding when I tell you that I could have the WHOLE planet running in 6 months… perfectly.
But, it would mean that banking dynasties do not control countries anymore, elected governments do.
I can already see that the worlds finance ministers cant see how to fix it… or they don’t want to, I’m not sure which one it is.
So, it looks like a war is coming… unless people wake up.

== Freedom and Democracy ==
The other problems around the world, is a battle for resources, it’s got nothing to do with freedom and democracy.

== USA Housing crisis ==
Officially…
The American people are just stupid people that borrow what they cant afford, its their fault.
I think…
The private bankers that own the USA, made money cheap and then sold thousands of houses. Americans all bought.
Then they sold that debt (they had to change the law to do it, in fact the US treasury secretary had the law changed), and then they sold the debt forward so they could get the cash immediately, after that they didn’t care what happened to those mortgages.
As they bankrupted the USA so the interest rates went up, and it eventually collapsed.
You decide, engineered or accident?

… that’s how I see the news… and it worries me greatly.

I watch “normal” people in all these countries and I get very sad, because it doesn’t actually take much to fix the financial system, other than good will, but the old wealth of the world will never allow it… the people pay.

Look at the Americans and the Brits working in Russia… they love them.
This is not a people thing… that is for sure… the hatred is being engineered.

… I think, but if I’m wrong… then ok… but tell me WHY.

We not chasing Amazon jungle tribes around because they not democracies, why does that not count, but Russia which is definitely an emerging democracy… does?
China, which is definitely socialist, is never mentioned.

Nothing makes sense anymore… WHY?

Lets just make sure we really know what we fighting for…
Lets make sure we really know who our friends are…
It seems that you only get a glimpse at the truth, when you forget ideals and follow the money trail.
Michal November 9, 2008, 16:35: "Wasn’t Poland the trigger of the Second World War, gee Europe you really are flipping stupid, you just don’t learn, do you?"

Yes it was - it didn`t surrender to Germany like Czechoslovakia did ;). It is Poland`s fault that it was attacked by both Germany and USSR at the same time. Johnny - please read some history books because Your lack of any history knowledge is just... helpless...

For Your information Germany invaded Poland on 1st of September 1939 and Soviet Union invaded Poland on 17th of September 1939 in joint Ribbentropp-Molotov pact. That is history lesson for You now go to Your books and study before stating other nonsense :P.