South Ossetia wants to be Russia & Belarus’ best mate
Published 16 October, 2008, 13:07
Abkhazia and South Ossetia have just become de jure independent from Georgia, thanks to recognition from Russia. But their appetites are still growing. First, they've both stated they are going to join the Commonwealth of Independent States. And now, South Ossetia says it has prepared all the documents to join the Russia-Belarus Union State.
Insatiable appetites
The new integration interests of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are absolutely understandable. At the moment the two republics are a kind of “half-states”, recognized only by Russia, faraway Nicaragua, the Palestinian Autonomy and Lebanese radical party Hamas. Compared to these results, Kosovo’s latest record of more than 50 recognitions is a kind of a triumph. What this means for the two Caucasian republics is that they still do not have equal rights with other countries. They cannot freely develop international relationships or join the UN for example. Their main hopes at this time lie within the post-Soviet area.
Speaking about South Ossetia’s claim to join the Russia-Belarus Union State there is no doubt that Russia would support it. Tired of being almost alone in this issue, Russia wants the two republics to enter the integration structures in the region. That would at least allow Abkhazia and South Ossetia to join cooperation programmes in the region. The most difficult task so far was to make sure that the other countries want to get such new allies.
What about Belarus?
It was quite a surprise when Belarus, believed to be the most loyal of all Russia’s allies, did not recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia straight after Russia. So far, Belorusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko has stopped at providing nothing more than verbal support to the Russian leadership whilst playing for time. His behaviour was largely explained by Europe-oriented ambitions. In August and September the recent parliamentary campaign in Belarus – an important factor in curing Belarusian ties with the West – was gathering pace.
As South Ossetia claims to join the Union State, Belarus could find itself in a difficult situation, when all the answers have to be given. Caucasian republics can’t be allowed in, without being recognised, at least partly. Right now South Ossetia is putting the issue of its accession before the Union Parliament, scheduled to sit on October 16-17. If the Belorusian deputies support South Ossetia’s bid it would mean the de facto recognition of the republic.
But that is not likely to happen. It is the last session of the Union Parliament before the newly-elected generation of Belorusian deputies comes into office. What credibility would the departing parliamentarians’ decision have? So, this time Belarus would rather freeze the decision-making on South Ossetia’s bid, claiming that in the first place it has to officially recognise the republic in its new State Parliament.
That will not happen before October 27, when the new parliament gathers for the first time. Moreover, even if the Union Parliament votes for the South Ossetia’s accession, the final decision will be in the hands of the two countries’ presidents, who have to approve the Union Parliament’s resolution. Their meeting is to be held by the end of 2008.
Matter of time
For Russia the accession of South Ossetia to the Union State with Belarus is not so much a problem of integrating it into the organisation, but of its final recognition. And it seems that Belarus can do either.
The recent parliamentary election has shown that the EU has taken a pragmatic stance on what is happening in Belarus. They are more interested in pulling Belarus out from Russia’s sphere of influence. Although the OSCE’s preliminary report has shown that the election did not meet its standards, the EU has finally lifted visa restrictions on Aleksandr Lukashenko and other high-ranking Belarusian officials. This has opened a way for dialogue with the current Belorusian regime. And Europe would not shut the door even if Belarus decided to do something it wouldn’t like.
Besides, the EU seems to be ready to soften its position on the Caucasian republics. The big sign is that in spite of Georgia’s protests, they invited delegations from Abkhazia and South Ossetia to the peace negotiations in Geneva on October 15. The results were few, however. The two delegations’ status was vague, Georgia refused to talk to them directly and, eventually, the negotiations were suspended until November. By that time many things can change.
Meanwhile, Belarus is playing its own game. While not refusing to get closer to the West, it is building even firmer ties with Russia. Recently, Belarusian authorities confirmed their plans to create a joint air defence system with Russia. It would be the easiest way to oppose US AMD plans in Poland and the Czech Republic. Also, Belarus is continuing to create a customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan and the main threat to Belarus’s political stability still dwells in the West, according to what was said at a meeting between Lukashenko and top
secret service officials. At the same time, Belarus always has the opportunity to refer to its dependence on gas talks with Russia if any displeased voices are heard from Europe.
So Aleksandr Lukashenko feels free to continue his policy of building an even closer military-political union with Russia while intensifying his contacts with Europe in search of technologies and investment for Belorussian heavy industry. That is why, whatever the Union Parliament decides at the current session, recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Belarus seems to be just a matter of time.
Darya Sologub for RT
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