South Ossetia’s hopes rest with Belarus
Published 14 October, 2008, 18:35
Even before the Georgian war, there had been talk of including South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the Union State – a supranational confederation between Russia and Belarus. Now it’s official. South Ossetia will apply for visitor status at the next Union State parliamentary session on October 16-17.
Membership of the Union State is open to interested countries, but it has remained a political duo so far. However, South Ossetia’s path to membership of this exclusive club may not be simple.
Deputy speaker of the South Ossetian parliament, Yury Dzitsoity, announced at the end of last week that the republic is preparing to apply for admission.
“The question of the entry of South Ossetia into the Union State of Russia and Belarus is already decided, it can be said, but there are certain procedures,” Dzitsoity explained.
The Union State is a supranational body open to all countries. Its goal is eventually to create a federation with a common leadership, constitution, army, currency, citizenship and so on. So far, it hasn’t made much progress on these goals. Nonetheless, South Ossetia’s aspirations to membership in it are logical.
The Union State has existed in varying forms since 1996. The motivations for its creation were practical. Belarus is predominantly agricultural and has a large but outdated heavy industry sector. It is dependent on Russia economically. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko correctly saw the Union State as a means of propping up the country economically. He also saw it as a means of gaining greater power on the domestic and international stages. At home, his regime increased its support as closer ties with an increasingly powerful Russia brought prosperity. At the end of the same year, Lukashenko’s government held the infamous referendum to increase his powers. This also led to his political problems with the West.
The South Ossetians have similar motivations for seeking admission to the Union State. South Ossetia is largely rural, with little industry. It is geographically and politically isolated. Its viability as an independent state is altogether doubtful. It needs a lot of help, and it needs it fast. But humanitarian aid will not raise its status internationally. It needs treaties, loans and the other trappings of statehood. But so far it has only been recognised by Russia and Nicaragua, so it has limited prospects. Its entry into other regional organisations remains blocked until it wins wider recognition. However, South Ossetia can hope for membership in the Union State if Belarus recognises its independence.
Russia has announced Belarus’s imminent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia more than once. In an interview The Financial Times and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Lukashenko promised that Belarus’ new parliament would take up the issue, even though he personally has the authority to recognise the republics.
“Since the issue is very acute, as I said, and it led to the confrontation, almost to a cold war, I would not like to do it in haste and single-handedly,” Lukashenko told the newspapers.
“Some time will pass, and, having discussed this issue – we have an intense discussion going on in the society – we will take an appropriate decision,” he said.
The parliament is expected to hold its first session at the end of the month or in the beginning of November.
Time will tell. Lukashenko admits that he could recognise the republics if he wanted to, but there are good reasons for him not to want to. It may be appropriate here to recall Russia’s protracted “gas war” with its partner in the Union State. Its culmination, with Belarus paying market prices for Russian natural gas, was only the latest in a series of blows to Union unity. Russia has reinstated customs procedures at the Russian-Belarusian border. Meanwhile, Belarus has steadfastly resisted replacing its national currency with the Russian rouble.
Now Lukashenko has the opportunity to remind Russia what his cooperation is worth. But the silence of Russia’s closest ally is eloquent.
Furthermore, a new member in the Union State would undermine his position. He would no longer have Russia to himself, as it were. Since the gas war, the Belarusian president has been looking at other partners. His highly visible overtures to the West have received a positive response. In spite of Western disappointment with the parliamentary elections, the warming of relations continues. The travel ban on Lukashenko and many of his officials has been lifted and the Belarusian Foreign Minister, Sergey Martynov, met with EU foreign ministers on Monday, the first meeting at such a high level since 2004.
Lukashenko may find it materially as well as morally rewarding to stymie South Ossetia’s ambitions.
Russia needs recognition for South Ossetia. Absorbing the republic into the Russian Federation, which is possible under changes made to the Russian Constitution a few years ago, would look like annexation and lead to howls of protest from the West. But recognition is not enough to run a country. Admitting South Ossetia to the Union State would be extremely controversial and only a small first step in the right direction. The Belarusian president finds himself with a swing vote in affairs far beyond his borders.
Derek Andersen, RT
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