Ukraine: Ready, set… vote!
Published 09 October, 2008, 12:53
Viktor Yushchenko's announcement of yet another set of parliamentary elections did not come as a surprise to anyone.
Ukraine’s political parties appear to be all set to slide into their standard pre-poll routine – a kaleidoscope of mutual accusations, attempts at discrediting opponents and the release of incriminating evidence. The President, for his part, assured the public that the elections on December 7 will be “democratic and lawful”.
The parliamentarians’ reactions seemed to be if not premeditated, then surely marinated in experience. After all, it isn’t their first time; in fact, it is their third time in three years. And, despite announcing that they were all against the elections in the first place, the leading politicians already seem to be deep in preparation.
Lady Yu
Out of the assorted reactions, perhaps the only surprising one was that of Yulia Timoshenko and her Bloc: they kept silent. Some consider their reaction, or lack of it, a prolongation of the fact that the Bloc was originally fervently opposed to early elections.
A vehement Timoshenko supporter and Bloc member, Andrey Portnoy, even suggested that the President is begging for a re-enactment of the Georgian scenario, with a public uproar against the government’s unlawful actions, as seen in May.
As for Viktor Yushchenko, he actively accuses Yulia Timoshenko’s Bloc itself, and an unnamed outside force, for stirring up the new political crisis.
“Actually, an attempt at dismantling Ukraine and its values has begun,” he said during his crucial address announcing the elections. “An impingement upon our national democratic forces has been made from outside. It is a nail that is consciously being put into our body. Yulia Timoshenko’s Bloc has become a hostage of its leaders. They are prepared to sacrifice everything: our language, our security, our European perspective.”
However, the Bloc seems set for success. According to recent polls they are in the lead, albeit by a narrow margin. The Kiev International Institute of Sociology found that 24.1% of Ukrainians are prepared to vote for Timoshenko, as opposed to Yanukovich's 23.3%.
Yanukovich’s situation is said to have taken a turn for the worse since the poll results were released. The tensions within his party make him less attractive for voters. Some even prophesise a presidency for Timoshenko, although Lady Yu (as she became known) seems to focus more on whether to preserve her position as Prime Minister.
The Bloc’s representatives asserted that after the official decree calling for early elections, the party will have to regroup and make a decision on whether to keep Yulia Timoshenko as Prime Minister. Previously, Timoshenko emphasised the fact that she would not step down from her post, despite the collapse of the coalition and despite her resignation being the President’s implied request.
However, as Nikolay Tomenko, the Parliament’s deputy chair and a member of Yulia Timoshenko’s Bloc, notes, being Prime Minister in the current political climate could prove to be an insurmountable task.
“It is a difficult situation: imagine how the Prime Minister will have to work when she doesn’t have any instruments of power and she cannot influence anything. She will be blamed for a complicated situation which she cannot affect,” Tomenko said during an interview with the Ukrainian Channel 5.
Man number 3
Viktor Yanukovitch – the leader of the Regions’ Party and a seasoned opponent of anything ‘orange’ – was quick to make a follow-up on the president’s announcement. As the third leading politician in the country, lagging behind only Yushchenko and Timoshenko, his reaction to the announcement had to be swift.
The contents of his speech seemed to be like 2006 revisited. After all, that was the year of his most successful campaign to date. Yanukovich yet again presented a rigid party policy, rebuffing firmly, albeit tacitly, the rumours of a potential coalition with Yulia Timoshenko’s Bloc.
He also made a point of noting that “the government has put the country on the edge of panic and bankruptcy”, implying his condemnation of early elections. The alleged chasm within the Region’s Party itself was skillfully glossed over.
Nevertheless, the “hysterical activities” (as they were described by Ukrainian political expert Alexey Golubitsky) which took place in the Regions’ Party in early September did not go unnoticed. According to many, the inner intrigues of the party have left it weakened: they focused on trying to discredit each other – with parliamentarians accusing Yanukovich of treachery and him being quick to answer similarly – rather than potential opponents.
And the rest…
The Communist Party as well as Litvin’s Bloc were eager proponents of the elections and, despite not making any statements following the election’s announcement, seem to be polishing up their campaign techniques.
Their main hope of significantly improving their parliamentary presence is playing on the public weariness of the usual Ukrainian political players. After three years of the ever-shifting Yushchenko, Timoshenko and Yanukovich, the Ukrainian public might be inclined to try something new; or so the outsiders hope.
Heroes of the occasion
The upcoming political showcase seems to benefit everyone’s interests, apart from those of the budget and the public. During his talks with the parliamentarians which preceded the announcement, Viktor Yushchenko insisted that changes to the country’s budget should be made – elections are a costly business.
According to Anatoly Gritsenko – a representative of the Our Ukraine People’s Self-Defence bloc – their price will come to around $US 73 million, a sum unforeseen by the country’s budget which will have to be hastily redrafted. In the light of the world’s financial crisis, this may have harsh consequences for Ukrainian economic well-being.
However, according to one of the leaders of Ukraine's Communist parliament, Piotr Tsybenko, the funds, necessary for the elections do not even have to be taken out of the country's budget. They can be saved at the expense of Presiden't Yushchenko's secretariat.
For now, the parties have to focus on clearing the main hurdle: the 3 percent entry barrier into the Rada. To do this, they need to at least convince their voters that another set of elections will be worthwhile, and more long-lasting, than the previous two. Worn out after continuous elections and crises, the Ukrainian public is becoming more and more apathetic.
What do experts say?
Analysts are left to wonder what Yushchenko’s motives for calling elections might be. Pavel Salin, an expert at the Russian Centre of Current Affairs, suggests that it might be the President’s attempt to gain unchallenged control of the country. In the event of Timoshenko’s resignation and with an already inactive parliament, Yushchenko’s power would be uncontested.
“For example, this could lead to some unforeseen protests and developments in the Crimea in mid-October,” says Salin.
Others, such as political scientist Vitaly Tretyakov, suggest that the dissolution of parliament was Yushchenko’s hasty attempt to escape impeachment, following the scandal over the illegal arms trade. The Ukrainian parliament commission has recently revealed serious irregularities in Ukraine’s arms trade, notably with Georgia.
Mainly, the experts agree that there will be no significant changes in the political situation in Ukraine following the elections: shuffling the cards around will not create a new deck. A new political force which could significantly change the balance of power in the country remains nonexistent.
“There will be no surprises,” says Natalia Korolevskaya, a Ukrainian parliament committee leader. “Not enough time has gone by since the previous elections for any significant changes to take place”.
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