Paul,Gazprom is mostly goverment owned just as in many countries for example,The NNPC which is government owned has sole control of oil in Nigeria.
As for being more concerned with getting paid,I really do not understand you clearly.Is that not what a Business is about? Charity on the other hand is what is more concerned about securing anyones supply or welfare and not payments.
Is Europe doing enough to deserve being supplied with russian resources? Until now I can only see european aggressions toward Russia, while Asia, the future economic center of the world, is ready to substitute all of Europe´s demand.
Sam; Thank you for supporting my statement that Russia (Gazprom) is not a social services agency! I am working part-time and on disability pension AND HAVE SEEN A MAJOR INCREASE IN MY GAS, ELECTRIC AND TELEPHONE BILLS. Because of these increases, I have had to prioritise my spending. Oh, believe I saw one of your comments on RT last night. N.W.Hill
Russia has to find differend routes to bring its resources to her customers, Which is doing, they all ready have build the Blue Stream pipe line going to Turkey ,.now they are building the Nord Stream and soon the South Stream,.yes they are doing enough.
It is difficult to say if NordStream and South-Stream will ever be completed.
So far all these plans are on paper. Once Medvedev comes to power, all these plans might be cancelled and Russia might allow Anglo-americans to take over Russian energy and metal assets.
Cheap oil and gas flowing from Russia at 50$ per cubic-m and 20$/barrel might be a dream come true.
Nabucco the rival pipeline project might bypass all non-russian gas and oil from central-asia and caucasus to england and US.
Even now under Putin, Nordstream is facing infinite hurdles, it is unlikely it will ever be built. In europe, nothing happens without the permission of Anglo-americans.
Right from the beginning Nordstream's strategy was stupid. They wasted precious time appeasing baltic countries and poland when they should have involved finland, sweden and norway and given them stakes in project along with germany.
perhaps involving Norway would have been enough as Finland already has enough trade deals with Russia and Sweden imports most of its energy supplies from Norway.
Nordstream's construction bordering Nordic Countries would have moved a lot quicker than uselessly dabbling with russophobes like poland and baltics.
Ukraine is going to "lose" the transit pipeline anyway. Against that, it is getting its own gas from alternative, cheaper sources now. Unfortunately those sources are from guess where - Central Asia, which may be cheaper but is not necessarily as reliable - or so it would seem - as Ukraine as already found. No one is suggesting that Ukraine shouldn't pay the an agreed rate, but this continued brinkmanship does no one any favours. The body language between Putin and President Yushchenko was interesting to say the least yesterday - I don't think Valentine cards will be exchanged tomorrow :-)
Like someone stated earlier,Russia is not a social service organisation.There is a international rate on gas so pay it. The way Ukraine are going about it, in a short time even the payments they get for the pipeline passing via their country will be gone.Like all companies,if the middle man dusrupts your supplies you find another route to supply your customers.With alternative pipeline deals now made,Ukraine will lost a large income from the pipelines and still end up paying the international rate.
Ukraine and Russia need to avoid, somehow, getting into situations where threats to cut gas supplies are being made. I don't know who's fault it is, if any, but it can't do Russia's reputation any good as a reliable supplier of energy. As I said before the West will always be on Ukraine's side on this, fairly or not, and all the assurances from Russia about supplies to the West being maintained will count for very little - fairly or not. That's the reality.
I am pleased to see the Ukraine and Russia have settled their dispute over gas prices and any past gas bill. While the Ukraine may have some financial and political instabilities, it is still a nice nation. Belarus needs to change leadership, Lukashenko, and get into the world economy.
Sanjay says - This Post is also a general primer for Global-Power Structure and is a quick read for any novice who wants to introduce themselves to geopolitics and power assessment. – Most people reading/contributing to this FORUM generally are no novices to GP or Power etc. :)) 1. Brazil and South Africa are underdeveloped and have little to offer anything to outside world. Soccer and nude carnivals would not suffice. – Nude clubs, nude bars, nude beaches, now nude tour packages in Germany. “Germany is OUT, Right?” 2. In the system of international relations this is the hierarchy of power: - Oh I see! Global Power: US is the unrivalled global power today, it is feared and respected throughout the planet. – Two points, It never was/ is not now/ and hopefully never will be NOT UNRIVALLED. Yeah, it has the momentary advantage, due to its military spending, period! Nobody will dispute, it is in an economic FREEFALL, its technological lead significantly eroded by China, Japan and in many cases by RF, others! Its soft power, if you mean music and films HATED in many parts, and overtaken by such forces as Hollywood etc. The biggest advantage it has is the reserve status of the USD$. 2. Major-Powers: There are only two. Russia: A rapidly declining one. Only country with capacity to annihilate the Global-Power. – I think your second statement says it all, because debate on this issue is not worth the while. As they say, all can be forgiven till that particular hour, when it is needed the most. China: A rapidly ascending power, phenomenal investment in hard-power, rapidly increasing soft-power. Growing population, rapidly growing economy, rapidly transforming itself into an industrial and knowledge powerhouse.- Agreed on most respects, except the phrase “Soft power”, you mean to say that Chinese music and films/ actors etc are household names worldwide, not except that Bond girl! 3. Middle Powers: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UK and India. – Your theory of Middle level, outer level, inner level etc reminds one of ‘the lords of the Rings’!
Everybody is entitled to his/her opinion, but the fact of the matter is that very few really search for answers OR solutions. As someone said – “prevention is always better than the cure” and if someone feels everything is FINE, then there is no dispute, but we all have to think not of today but 10 years hence…
We have recognize that the MAJOR THREATS to this world are terrorists/war (Be in the guise of Blocs, renegades, weak international laws, jungle might, nationalists, xenophobes whatever) People know that the major problems are poverty, energy, food, water, violence, global governance etc. The knowledge of the problem is half the battle won! Experts are generally wrong, but situations rarely are!
Michael "Thanks for confirming my statement about the original meaning of villain, but why did it come to be used as meaning a criminal? A few years ago, references to "the criminal classes" were frequent and shameless. A blatant element of anti-working class war in my view. It is now approaching a pogrom in Britain. "
You're quite right that many words - in different languages - associated with lower classes often come to be associated with criminal behaviour and that that is very unfair stereotyping. But these associations were made centuries ago. It seems unfair to pick on the contemporary use of villain as evidence of class war, though there may well be other compelling evidence. After all we talk freely about Slavs and Serbs nowadays without thinking slaves and serfs, but I believe the USSR was sensitive enough abot the negative connotations of the Slava watch that it had the name changed! Anyway, I digressed again :-)
1. I first denied giving Brazil a minor power status and then eventually included it after giving carefully thought. I feel Brazil is still a near minor power and not "full" minor power.
2. Another "Near" minor power could be Pakistan. It is the only country with Islamic Bomb and is the leading supplier of terror throughout the world along with Saudis.
I also feel that Russia should collaborate with India on the same scale as it does with Europe, if not more. India and China will be biggest consumers of Energy.
India should collaborate with Israel, germany and Japan on clean-coal, solar and wind, with Russia, Norway, France on Oil-Gas-Nuclear to mitigate its shortages.
I feel Russia and India are not collaborating at all and their relationship is well-below their actual potential. Russia-India trade can be easily 100-billion-dollars per year but its pitiful that its hovering around 5 billion if not less.
So is Europe-India Relationship. I wonder why India and France-Germany are not doing enough business. Their bilateral trade is pitiful.
Sentinal. your post has so many problems I do not know where to begin. I will deal with only one issue for now. This Post is also a general primer for Global-Power Structure and is a quick read for any novice who wants to introduce themselves to geopolitics and power assessment.
1. Brazil and South Africa are not even minor powers, let alone pillars. Both of these countries have legions of poor, are underdeveloped and have little to offer anything to outside world. neither do they have any demonstrable hard or soft power. Soccer and nude carnivals would not suffice.
2. In the system of international relations this is the hiearchy of power:
GLobal Power: US is the unrivalled global power today. Its hard power is in a dimension of its own, it capacity and momentum to innovate, its pervasive culture good or bad, makes its soft power felt globally. Its economy is the largest in the world, its population growing, its currency the reserve of the world, it is feared and respected throughout the planet.
2. Major-Powers: There are only two. Russia: A rapidly declining one. largest country on earth, Straddles europe, middle-east, central and east-asia. Significant hard-power though rapidly atrophing, declining soft-power, immense resource power, declining population, pervasive corruption, political nihilism and legions of enemies without and traitors within. Largest stockpile of nuclear Weapons. Only country with capacity to annihilate the Global-Power.
China: A rapidly ascending power, phenominal investment in hard-power, rapidly increasing soft-power in central asia, africa and south-east asia. Growing population, rapidly growing economy, rapidly transforming itself into an industrial and knowledge powerhouse.
3. Middle Powers: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UK and India.
Israel is the defacto leader in middle-east today. It has unrivalled intellectual potential. its hard power is felt as far as europe, central-asia and south Asia. Entire middle-east is in its thrall, its existence and prosperity is the cornerstone of american and european foreign policy. It is one of the top 4 largest arms suppliers in the world. its economy one of the most innovative.
Saudi-Arabia: The worlds preeminent energy supplier, it sets the pace for global energy prices and supplies and hence the health of global economy and power relations. it is the custodian of the two holy mosques and a leader among the billion strong islamic world. Immense financial and inspirational source for wahhabi terror, which even ramzan kadyrov laments, has driven chechens to mass-terror. Through its arabic language and islamic literature exercises immense soft-power thorughout the islamic world and hence eurasia and North-America.
UK: Financial centre of the world, despite New-York claiming the throne. Through its imperial past and its language exercises phenomenal soft-power throughout the world. Rapidly replacing french language in global discourse, has significant hard-power. One of the few nations with autonomous nuclear-triad and air-craft carriers. Robust economy, shelters world famous criminals and masterminds and influences europe through divide and rule, without itself joining the euro. Sponsers terror and political subversion through first rate spy network and NGOs and masterfully keeps Eurasia destabilized and weak.
India: One Billion people, neo-liberal coolie of the americans. Rapidly expanding economy, brilliant but servile people ready to hand over their nuclear assests and military complex to americans, exercises considerable soft-power through yoga, philosophy, ancient heritage, film industry. Most significant strategic location with China in North-east, Middle-east in the west, Central-asia in the north and Indian Oceon in the South. Significant and rapidly expnading consumer of energy. Immense potential for hard-Power and Innovative Economy. Rapidly Increasing population.
Minor Powers:
Germany and Japan due to their innovation and economy (but colonies nonetheless), rapidly declining and decaying populations facing extinction. Germany crushed under permanent guilt.
France: due its still pervasive soft power through language and culture (though declining), its influence in Africa, its significant hard-power and force-de-frappe. Veto member in Security Council. Legacy power from imperial times.
Brazil: Largest Latin Country. Leader in South-America. Trying to be an innovative economy. Significant natural resources, expanding gdp and population. Portuguese is not a global language though, so a soft-power hadicap.Soccer.
Turkey: Third most powerful NATO country. Immense Geostrategic Importance, rapidly expanding energy hub. Guaranteer of Israel's security. Expanding population and economy, trying to be an innovation and financial hub, Significant ability and say in NATO decisions, unlike germany and other colonies. Significant legacy Soft-power from ottoman era. Leader among turkic nations.
Iran: A near minor power. Some legacy soft-power. Leader in the Shia World. One of the main energy suppliers mostly in Euros, Immense geostrategic significance. Never been colonized by European Powers, like Thailand and Ethiopia except during active wars. Significant cultural influence since ancient times in middle-east, caucasus and central-asia.
Among Minor powers only Turkey has the potential to become a middle-power in next 10-20 years.
By losing its sovereignity to Anglo-Americans, by surrendering its media, finance and defense-nuclear complex to Anglos, India is at the greatest risk of losing its middle-power status and descending as a minor power.
Russia therefore through manouvering its energy resources and bolstering its nuclear triad, economy and demography should ally itself with Europe and India to Counter Anglo-Americans, International Terror and Rising Power in the East.
India should learn from 150 years of colonial rule, and should not allow itself to become a colony and a vassal under the garb of friendship and technology collaboration. The nuclear deal is a vicious trap.
India should secure its energy supplies through indigenous thorium based technology (uranium-plutonium-thorium, 1-2-3 cycle) and collaborating on large scale with Russia, Iran and Africa.
As far as China taking Russian-Manchuria, I mistakenly typed Mongolia instead of Manchuria for which I apologize.-No it wasn't, u typed what u REALLY FELT! But accusing me of "losing my mind" or accusing me of uttering "non-sense" in public places is baseless.-Maybe not loosing ur mind, but yes Constructive criticism is always more welcome than Tirades or Rants! Russia has had conflicts with China ever since the treaties of Aigun and Beijing in 1858 and Chinese, despite recently signing border treaties with Russia still consider these treaties as unfair. - Did Hu tell u that? There’s a lot of HOT AIR that can be created by simply GASSING about the place. Do u think or wait to think ever for second, that if Chinese did occupy that VITAL SPACE, the WEST or even 10 million Russians (according to Ur demographic projections), would LET IT ENJOY THOSE FRUITS in peace. Chinese have been thru history been hated/ridiculed/captured/lorded over by the OLD EUROPE and as their ECONOMIC POWER/CAPABILITIES increase so do the CLEAR/PRESENT dangers TO THEM! They need solid allies like RF, SCO, India, Vietnam, Australia (with its Chinese speaking PM) ETC.
Today as in future 100 years (if the World survives that long, this is an increasingly a 5/6 POLAR WORLD. US, India, China, RF, Brazil and maybe South Africa are the Pillars/polar of the World. The term BRIC Should be replaced increasingly by a term "Big BRAIC or BRAICS Countries" These are countries who are going to provide the Big Breaks to the world increasingly, and whether somebody likes it or nor, their fortunes are increasingly going to be interdependent, WITNESS the current Sub-Prime Crisis of US or The mini-crisis in Chinese Stocks sometime back It is these countries with HUGE populations, massive territories, Resources - both commodity wise as well as intellectual that shall determine and eventually DECIDE the future course of the WHOLE WORLD - towards Progress/ OR towards Destruction OR self-annihilation, as because all these states individually or easily collectively are capable of destroying our beautiful planet.
OF COURSE, there are certain technological capable nations such as Japan/Germany and maybe France/Italy and definitely maybe not Britain, who shall provide those desperately needed mini-thrusts TO SOMETIMES CORRECT the Tilt or the angle or the mini-push needed to get the right angle etc, but eventually these big 5/6 are the ones who shall provide OR are already providing the MASSIVE THRUSTS needed to lift and eventually escape the atmospheric pressure of War, terrorism, Militarized Blocs, Energy shortages, poverty, rising FOOD PRICES etc and so many other problems facing mankind today…!
The UN Security Council, other organizations have to be urgently reformed, military Blocs (Already disunited/utterly redundant) be dismantled, otherwise mankind is swiftly hurling towards ARMAGEDDON and not that 1000 year peace!
Thanks for confirming my statement about the original meaning of villain, but why did it come to be used as meaning a criminal? A few years ago, references to "the criminal classes" were frequent and shameless. A blatant element of anti-working class war in my view. It is now approaching a pogrom in Britain.
At first I thought your reply wasn't worth replying to; but in the interest of other readers who might have been confused by your response, I will add the following:
Bill Gates and Other Corporate leaders in America, who created IT Giants like Larry Page, Larry Ellison etc started from scratch and created products which are global leaders today and for quite some time.
They are the rightful owners of their wealth. Millions of their employees own shares so do millions of middle-class americans.
In sharp contrast, the oligarchs of Russia never created anything from scratch. They never built any industrial empires on their own. They merely appropriated soviet property and started enjoying their cash flow.
The most vicious ones like Berezovsky, Gusinsky, etc openly stripped companies and looted them left and right.
The last 19th century robber barons of America, the Rockefellers, Carnegies, Fords built huge industrial empires and created millions of jobs. They were ruthless and yes they broke laws many times and created huge monopolies, but they were infinitely better wealth creaters than the wealth usurpers Oligarchs of Russia.
So your rants do not hold any water. They are just rants, thats it.
As far as China taking Russian-Manchuria, I mistakenly typed Mongolia instead of Manchuria for which I apologize.
But accusing me of "losing my mind" or accusing me of uttering "non-sense" in public places is baseless.
Russia has had conflicts with China ever since the treaties of Aigun and Beijing in 1858 and 1860. Chinese, despite recently signing border treaties with Russia still consider these treaties as unfair.
China and SU have had border wars along the Amur which forms the border between Russia and China in 1960s. These wounds cannot be healed by singing border treaties.
In international relations power determines how much land one can control not treaties or laws.
When China becomes immensely powerful in another 12-15 years, its power will be simply in another dimension compared to Russia who is facing demographic catastrophe.
Will China not try to acquire Russian Manchuria or even entire Far-East? I find it hard to believe. With population 15 times larger than Russia in 2020 and immense industrial power at its command, Russia will have to reckon with a reality far more perilious than ever in its history.
Ceding control to anglo-americans by collaborating with Exxon or Chevron, BP is not wise. Letting energy and metal industry in the hands of oligarchs who are using its cash flows to buy assets abroad is not wise either.
My point is, that just like GE, IBM, Microsoft, whose shares are owned by millions of middle-class americans,
Russians too should disburse the shares of their energy and metals giants to Russian people through stock market mechanisms. This will create true private property ownership.
By holding IPOs in londown and New-York the Oligarchs are cunnigly ceding and sharing control of Russian energy and metals with anglo-americans leaving Russians dependent on meager wages fueled by inflation.
And this despite the fact that US is the most powerful country, a developed country, a country with growing population, country whose currency is still the reserve of the planet. That is the reason why US has relatively free and fair elections.
Russians cannot and will not have free and fair elections so long as their working class does not own the russian energy and metals and other companies in Russia through stock-market mechanisms.
Michael " For those not English natives, a villain is a type of serf"
Sorry to digress but I think you're mixing your words up: "Villain" in Modern English means "criminal". It's also an alternative spelling of "villein", meaning feudal tenant. But "villein" and "villain" haven't meant the same thing for centuries .
None of which has anything to do with the price of fish, or indeed gas, I agree .
I think Russia is not starving its domestic customers after all you do not hear of petrol or gas shortages or blackouts there. Russia is already taking steps to bypass countries that disrupt its suppy.Latest one being the pipeline going via Bulgaria. Russia is also not over charging anyone and yet you have Belorus and Ukraine wanting special prices.Business is business,you pay for the gas we pay for the pipeline on your territory.That is how its done.There is nothing political about that. If I own British Gas £200 for more then a couple of months,they will turn off my gas supply with two weeks notice.$1.5 is not a £200 debt.
Marzipan, “But even being an energy manipulator is only in Russia's short-term, not long-term interest. Ultimately, Russia’s interests are best served by seeking a win-win outcome for itself and its customers alike, because a genuine symbiotic relationship ensures that each side has a genuine interest in the success and prosperity of the other.” So you are a genuine believer in full employment and an enemy of the “flexible” labour policies of the US and EU? Welcome to the very select club!
A higher price for fuel would be a great benefit to the world that squanders so much in the policy of pushing down the wages of the working classes.
MihalMihalich, Agree completely.
Energizer talks about villains as meaning enemies. For those not English natives, a villain is a type of serf. It says a lot about middle class Englishmen! Did Russians really equate serfs with criminals?
19 February, 2008, 23:15
Paul,Gazprom is mostly goverment owned just as in many countries for example,The NNPC which is government owned has sole control of oil in Nigeria.
As for being more concerned with getting paid,I really do not understand you clearly.Is that not what a Business is about?
Charity on the other hand is what is more concerned about securing anyones supply or welfare and not payments.
18 February, 2008, 21:26
I suspect that Gazprom trade policy is pro-Russian.
Gazprom is more often concerned with getting payments from all buyers of its natural gas and oil rather than with securing anybody’s supply.
Paul
16 February, 2008, 11:29
Is Europe doing enough to deserve being supplied with russian resources? Until now I can only see european aggressions toward Russia, while Asia, the future economic center of the world, is ready to substitute all of Europe´s demand.
14 February, 2008, 18:33
Sam; Thank you for supporting my statement that Russia (Gazprom) is not a social services agency! I am working part-time and on disability pension AND HAVE SEEN A MAJOR INCREASE IN MY GAS, ELECTRIC AND TELEPHONE BILLS. Because of these increases, I have had to prioritise my spending. Oh, believe I saw one of your comments on RT last night. N.W.Hill
14 February, 2008, 01:52
Russia has to find differend routes to bring its resources to her customers, Which is doing, they all ready have build the Blue Stream pipe line going to Turkey ,.now they are building the Nord Stream and soon the South Stream,.yes they are doing enough.
14 February, 2008, 00:44
It is difficult to say if NordStream and South-Stream will ever be completed.
So far all these plans are on paper. Once Medvedev comes to power, all these plans might be cancelled and Russia might allow Anglo-americans to take over Russian energy and metal assets.
Cheap oil and gas flowing from Russia at 50$ per cubic-m and 20$/barrel might be a dream come true.
Nabucco the rival pipeline project might bypass all non-russian gas and oil from central-asia and caucasus to england and US.
Even now under Putin, Nordstream is facing infinite hurdles, it is unlikely it will ever be built. In europe, nothing happens without the permission of Anglo-americans.
Right from the beginning Nordstream's strategy was stupid. They wasted precious time appeasing baltic countries and poland when they should have involved finland, sweden and norway and given them stakes in project along with germany.
perhaps involving Norway would have been enough as Finland already has enough trade deals with Russia and Sweden imports most of its energy supplies from Norway.
Nordstream's construction bordering Nordic Countries would have moved a lot quicker than uselessly dabbling with russophobes like poland and baltics.
13 February, 2008, 21:49
Ukraine is going to "lose" the transit pipeline anyway. Against that, it is getting its own gas from alternative, cheaper sources now. Unfortunately those sources are from guess where - Central Asia, which may be cheaper but is not necessarily as reliable - or so it would seem - as Ukraine as already found.
No one is suggesting that Ukraine shouldn't pay the an agreed rate, but this continued brinkmanship does no one any favours.
The body language between Putin and President Yushchenko was interesting to say the least yesterday - I don't think Valentine cards will be exchanged tomorrow :-)
13 February, 2008, 13:47
Like someone stated earlier,Russia is not a social service organisation.There is a international rate on gas so pay it.
The way Ukraine are going about it, in a short time even the payments they get for the pipeline passing via their country will be gone.Like all companies,if the middle man dusrupts your supplies you find another route to supply your customers.With alternative pipeline deals now made,Ukraine will lost a large income from the pipelines and still end up paying the international rate.
13 February, 2008, 10:21
Ukraine and Russia need to avoid, somehow, getting into situations where threats to cut gas supplies are being made. I don't know who's fault it is, if any, but it can't do Russia's reputation any good as a reliable supplier of energy. As I said before the West will always be on Ukraine's side on this, fairly or not, and all the assurances from Russia about supplies to the West being maintained will count for very little - fairly or not. That's the reality.
12 February, 2008, 18:43
I am pleased to see the Ukraine and Russia have settled their dispute over gas prices and any past gas bill. While the Ukraine may have some financial and political instabilities, it is still a nice nation. Belarus needs to change leadership, Lukashenko, and get into the world economy.
12 February, 2008, 18:25
Sanjay says - This Post is also a general primer for Global-Power Structure and is a quick read for any novice who wants to introduce themselves to geopolitics and power assessment. – Most people reading/contributing to this FORUM generally are no novices to GP or Power etc. :))
1. Brazil and South Africa are underdeveloped and have little to offer anything to outside world. Soccer and nude carnivals would not suffice. – Nude clubs, nude bars, nude beaches, now nude tour packages in Germany. “Germany is OUT, Right?”
2. In the system of international relations this is the hierarchy of power: - Oh I see!
Global Power: US is the unrivalled global power today, it is feared and respected throughout the planet. – Two points, It never was/ is not now/ and hopefully never will be NOT UNRIVALLED. Yeah, it has the momentary advantage, due to its military spending, period! Nobody will dispute, it is in an economic FREEFALL, its technological lead significantly eroded by China, Japan and in many cases by RF, others! Its soft power, if you mean music and films HATED in many parts, and overtaken by such forces as Hollywood etc. The biggest advantage it has is the reserve status of the USD$.
2. Major-Powers: There are only two. Russia: A rapidly declining one. Only country with capacity to annihilate the Global-Power. – I think your second statement says it all, because debate on this issue is not worth the while. As they say, all can be forgiven till that particular hour, when it is needed the most.
China: A rapidly ascending power, phenomenal investment in hard-power, rapidly increasing soft-power. Growing population, rapidly growing economy, rapidly transforming itself into an industrial and knowledge powerhouse.- Agreed on most respects, except the phrase “Soft power”, you mean to say that Chinese music and films/ actors etc are household names worldwide, not except that Bond girl!
3. Middle Powers: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UK and India. – Your theory of Middle level, outer level, inner level etc reminds one of ‘the lords of the Rings’!
Everybody is entitled to his/her opinion, but the fact of the matter is that very few really search for answers OR solutions.
As someone said – “prevention is always better than the cure” and if someone feels everything is FINE, then there is no dispute, but we all have to think not of today but 10 years hence…
We have recognize that the MAJOR THREATS to this world are terrorists/war (Be in the guise of Blocs, renegades, weak international laws, jungle might, nationalists, xenophobes whatever)
People know that the major problems are poverty, energy, food, water, violence, global governance etc.
The knowledge of the problem is half the battle won!
Experts are generally wrong, but situations rarely are!
12 February, 2008, 17:22
Michael
"Thanks for confirming my statement about the original meaning of villain, but why did it come to be used as meaning a criminal? A few years ago, references to "the criminal classes" were frequent and shameless. A blatant element of anti-working class war in my view. It is now approaching a pogrom in Britain. "
You're quite right that many words - in different languages - associated with
lower classes often come to be associated with criminal behaviour and that that is very unfair stereotyping. But these associations were made centuries ago. It seems unfair to pick on the contemporary use of villain as evidence of class war, though there may well be other compelling evidence.
After all we talk freely about Slavs and Serbs nowadays without thinking slaves and serfs, but I believe the USSR was sensitive enough abot the negative connotations of the Slava watch that it had the name changed!
Anyway, I digressed again :-)
12 February, 2008, 12:23
I would like to add a few more points:
1. I first denied giving Brazil a minor power status and then eventually included it after giving carefully thought. I feel Brazil is still a near minor power and not "full" minor power.
2. Another "Near" minor power could be Pakistan. It is the only country with Islamic Bomb and is the leading supplier of terror throughout the world along with Saudis.
I also feel that Russia should collaborate with India on the same scale as it does with Europe, if not more. India and China will be biggest consumers of Energy.
India should collaborate with Israel, germany and Japan on clean-coal, solar and wind, with Russia, Norway, France on Oil-Gas-Nuclear to mitigate its shortages.
I feel Russia and India are not collaborating at all and their relationship is well-below their actual potential. Russia-India trade can be easily 100-billion-dollars per year but its pitiful that its hovering around 5 billion if not less.
So is Europe-India Relationship. I wonder why India and France-Germany are not doing enough business. Their bilateral trade is pitiful.
12 February, 2008, 11:39
Sentinal. your post has so many problems I do not know where to begin. I will deal with only one issue for now. This Post is also a general primer for Global-Power Structure and is a quick read for any novice who wants to introduce themselves to geopolitics and power assessment.
1. Brazil and South Africa are not even minor powers, let alone pillars. Both of these countries have legions of poor, are underdeveloped and have little to offer anything to outside world. neither do they have any demonstrable hard or soft power. Soccer and nude carnivals would not suffice.
2. In the system of international relations this is the hiearchy of power:
GLobal Power: US is the unrivalled global power today. Its hard power is in a dimension of its own, it capacity and momentum to innovate, its pervasive culture good or bad, makes its soft power felt globally. Its economy is the largest in the world, its population growing, its currency the reserve of the world, it is feared and respected throughout the planet.
2. Major-Powers: There are only two. Russia: A rapidly declining one. largest country on earth, Straddles europe, middle-east, central and east-asia. Significant hard-power though rapidly atrophing, declining soft-power, immense resource power, declining population, pervasive corruption, political nihilism and legions of enemies without and traitors within. Largest stockpile of nuclear Weapons. Only country with capacity to annihilate the Global-Power.
China: A rapidly ascending power, phenominal investment in hard-power, rapidly increasing soft-power in central asia, africa and south-east asia. Growing population, rapidly growing economy, rapidly transforming itself into an industrial and knowledge powerhouse.
3. Middle Powers: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UK and India.
Israel is the defacto leader in middle-east today. It has unrivalled intellectual potential. its hard power is felt as far as europe, central-asia and south Asia. Entire middle-east is in its thrall, its existence and prosperity is the cornerstone of american and european foreign policy. It is one of the top 4 largest arms suppliers in the world. its economy one of the most innovative.
Saudi-Arabia: The worlds preeminent energy supplier, it sets the pace for global energy prices and supplies and hence the health of global economy and power relations. it is the custodian of the two holy mosques and a leader among the billion strong islamic world. Immense financial and inspirational source for wahhabi terror, which even ramzan kadyrov laments, has driven chechens to mass-terror. Through its arabic language and islamic literature exercises immense soft-power thorughout the islamic world and hence eurasia and North-America.
UK: Financial centre of the world, despite New-York claiming the throne. Through its imperial past and its language exercises phenomenal soft-power throughout the world. Rapidly replacing french language in global discourse, has significant hard-power. One of the few nations with autonomous nuclear-triad and air-craft carriers. Robust economy, shelters world famous criminals and masterminds and influences europe through divide and rule, without itself joining the euro. Sponsers terror and political subversion through first rate spy network and NGOs and masterfully keeps Eurasia destabilized and weak.
India: One Billion people, neo-liberal coolie of the americans. Rapidly expanding economy, brilliant but servile people ready to hand over their nuclear assests and military complex to americans, exercises considerable soft-power through yoga, philosophy, ancient heritage, film industry. Most significant strategic location with China in North-east, Middle-east in the west, Central-asia in the north and Indian Oceon in the South. Significant and rapidly expnading consumer of energy. Immense potential for hard-Power and Innovative Economy. Rapidly Increasing population.
Minor Powers:
Germany and Japan due to their innovation and economy (but colonies nonetheless), rapidly declining and decaying populations facing extinction. Germany crushed under permanent guilt.
France: due its still pervasive soft power through language and culture (though declining), its influence in Africa, its significant hard-power and force-de-frappe. Veto member in Security Council. Legacy power from imperial times.
Brazil: Largest Latin Country. Leader in South-America. Trying to be an innovative economy. Significant natural resources, expanding gdp and population. Portuguese is not a global language though, so a soft-power hadicap.Soccer.
Turkey: Third most powerful NATO country. Immense Geostrategic Importance, rapidly expanding energy hub. Guaranteer of Israel's security. Expanding population and economy, trying to be an innovation and financial hub, Significant ability and say in NATO decisions, unlike germany and other colonies. Significant legacy Soft-power from ottoman era. Leader among turkic nations.
Iran: A near minor power. Some legacy soft-power. Leader in the Shia World. One of the main energy suppliers mostly in Euros, Immense geostrategic significance. Never been colonized by European Powers, like Thailand and Ethiopia except during active wars. Significant cultural influence since ancient times in middle-east, caucasus and central-asia.
Among Minor powers only Turkey has the potential to become a middle-power in next 10-20 years.
By losing its sovereignity to Anglo-Americans, by surrendering its media, finance and defense-nuclear complex to Anglos, India is at the greatest risk of losing its middle-power status and descending as a minor power.
Russia therefore through manouvering its energy resources and bolstering its nuclear triad, economy and demography should ally itself with Europe and India to Counter Anglo-Americans, International Terror and Rising Power in the East.
India should learn from 150 years of colonial rule, and should not allow itself to become a colony and a vassal under the garb of friendship and technology collaboration. The nuclear deal is a vicious trap.
India should secure its energy supplies through indigenous thorium based technology (uranium-plutonium-thorium, 1-2-3 cycle) and collaborating on large scale with Russia, Iran and Africa.
12 February, 2008, 09:39
As far as China taking Russian-Manchuria, I mistakenly typed Mongolia instead of Manchuria for which I apologize.-No it wasn't, u typed what u REALLY FELT!
But accusing me of "losing my mind" or accusing me of uttering "non-sense" in public places is baseless.-Maybe not loosing ur mind, but yes Constructive criticism is always more welcome than Tirades or Rants!
Russia has had conflicts with China ever since the treaties of Aigun and Beijing in 1858 and Chinese, despite recently signing border treaties with Russia still consider these treaties as unfair. - Did Hu tell u that? There’s a lot of HOT AIR that can be created by simply GASSING about the place. Do u think or wait to think ever for second, that if Chinese did occupy that VITAL SPACE, the WEST or even 10 million Russians (according to Ur demographic projections), would LET IT ENJOY THOSE FRUITS in peace. Chinese have been thru history been hated/ridiculed/captured/lorded over by the OLD EUROPE and as their ECONOMIC POWER/CAPABILITIES increase so do the CLEAR/PRESENT dangers TO THEM! They need solid allies like RF, SCO, India, Vietnam, Australia (with its Chinese speaking PM) ETC.
Today as in future 100 years (if the World survives that long, this is an increasingly a 5/6 POLAR WORLD. US, India, China, RF, Brazil and maybe South Africa are the Pillars/polar of the World. The term BRIC Should be replaced increasingly by a term "Big BRAIC or BRAICS Countries" These are countries who are going to provide the Big Breaks to the world increasingly, and whether somebody likes it or nor, their fortunes are increasingly going to be interdependent, WITNESS the current Sub-Prime Crisis of US or The mini-crisis in Chinese Stocks sometime back It is these countries with HUGE populations, massive territories, Resources - both commodity wise as well as intellectual that shall determine and eventually DECIDE the future course of the WHOLE WORLD - towards Progress/ OR towards Destruction OR self-annihilation, as because all these states individually or easily collectively are capable of destroying our beautiful planet.
OF COURSE, there are certain technological capable nations such as Japan/Germany and maybe France/Italy and definitely maybe not Britain, who shall provide those desperately needed mini-thrusts TO SOMETIMES CORRECT the Tilt or the angle or the mini-push needed to get the right angle etc, but eventually these big 5/6 are the ones who shall provide OR are already providing the MASSIVE THRUSTS needed to lift and eventually escape the atmospheric pressure of War, terrorism, Militarized Blocs, Energy shortages, poverty, rising FOOD PRICES etc and so many other problems facing mankind today…!
The UN Security Council, other organizations have to be urgently reformed, military Blocs (Already disunited/utterly redundant) be dismantled, otherwise mankind is swiftly hurling towards ARMAGEDDON and not that 1000 year peace!
12 February, 2008, 07:03
Thanks for confirming my statement about the original meaning of villain, but why did it come to be used as meaning a criminal? A few years ago, references to "the criminal classes" were frequent and shameless. A blatant element of anti-working class war in my view. It is now approaching a pogrom in Britain.
12 February, 2008, 03:20
To Ho:
At first I thought your reply wasn't worth replying to; but in the interest of other readers who might have been confused by your response, I will add the following:
Bill Gates and Other Corporate leaders in America, who created IT Giants like Larry Page, Larry Ellison etc started from scratch and created products which are global leaders today and for quite some time.
They are the rightful owners of their wealth. Millions of their employees own shares so do millions of middle-class americans.
In sharp contrast, the oligarchs of Russia never created anything from scratch. They never built any industrial empires on their own. They merely appropriated soviet property and started enjoying their cash flow.
The most vicious ones like Berezovsky, Gusinsky, etc openly stripped companies and looted them left and right.
The last 19th century robber barons of America, the Rockefellers, Carnegies, Fords built huge industrial empires and created millions of jobs. They were ruthless and yes they broke laws many times and created huge monopolies, but they were infinitely better wealth creaters than the wealth usurpers Oligarchs of Russia.
So your rants do not hold any water. They are just rants, thats it.
As far as China taking Russian-Manchuria, I mistakenly typed Mongolia instead of Manchuria for which I apologize.
But accusing me of "losing my mind" or accusing me of uttering "non-sense" in public places is baseless.
Russia has had conflicts with China ever since the treaties of Aigun and Beijing in 1858 and 1860. Chinese, despite recently signing border treaties with Russia still consider these treaties as unfair.
China and SU have had border wars along the Amur which forms the border between Russia and China in 1960s. These wounds cannot be healed by singing border treaties.
In international relations power determines how much land one can control not treaties or laws.
When China becomes immensely powerful in another 12-15 years, its power will be simply in another dimension compared to Russia who is facing demographic catastrophe.
Will China not try to acquire Russian Manchuria or even entire Far-East? I find it hard to believe. With population 15 times larger than Russia in 2020 and immense industrial power at its command, Russia will have to reckon with a reality far more perilious than ever in its history.
Ceding control to anglo-americans by collaborating with Exxon or Chevron, BP is not wise. Letting energy and metal industry in the hands of oligarchs who are using its cash flows to buy assets abroad is not wise either.
My point is, that just like GE, IBM, Microsoft, whose shares are owned by millions of middle-class americans,
Russians too should disburse the shares of their energy and metals giants to Russian people through stock market mechanisms. This will create true private property ownership.
By holding IPOs in londown and New-York the Oligarchs are cunnigly ceding and sharing control of Russian energy and metals with anglo-americans leaving Russians dependent on meager wages fueled by inflation.
And this despite the fact that US is the most powerful country, a developed country, a country with growing population, country whose currency is still the reserve of the planet. That is the reason why US has relatively free and fair elections.
Russians cannot and will not have free and fair elections so long as their working class does not own the russian energy and metals and other companies in Russia through stock-market mechanisms.
11 February, 2008, 23:06
Michael
" For those not English natives, a villain is a type of serf"
Sorry to digress but I think you're mixing your words up: "Villain" in Modern English means "criminal". It's also an alternative spelling of "villein", meaning feudal tenant. But "villein" and "villain" haven't meant the same thing for centuries .
None of which has anything to do with the price of fish, or indeed gas, I agree .
11 February, 2008, 20:11
I think Russia is not starving its domestic customers after all you do not hear of petrol or gas shortages or blackouts there.
Russia is already taking steps to bypass countries that disrupt its suppy.Latest one being the pipeline going via Bulgaria.
Russia is also not over charging anyone and yet you have Belorus and Ukraine wanting special prices.Business is business,you pay for the gas we pay for the pipeline on your territory.That is how its done.There is nothing political about that.
If I own British Gas £200 for more then a couple of months,they will turn off my gas supply with two weeks notice.$1.5 is not a £200 debt.
11 February, 2008, 19:40
Marzipan,
“But even being an energy manipulator is only in Russia's short-term, not long-term interest. Ultimately, Russia’s interests are best served by seeking a win-win outcome for itself and its customers alike, because a genuine symbiotic relationship ensures that each side has a genuine interest in the success and prosperity of the other.”
So you are a genuine believer in full employment and an enemy of the “flexible” labour policies of the US and EU? Welcome to the very select club!
A higher price for fuel would be a great benefit to the world that squanders so much in the policy of pushing down the wages of the working classes.
MihalMihalich,
Agree completely.
Energizer talks about villains as meaning enemies. For those not English natives, a villain is a type of serf. It says a lot about middle class Englishmen! Did Russians really equate serfs with criminals?
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