"With words we govern men" – Disraeli

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Alexey Sazonov's column

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31 October, 2009, 15:40
It doesn’t matter who wins the Afghan elections

Regardless of who wins the elections in Afghanistan, the overall picture will not change. The United States simply cannot let the events unfold as they do, because that would make their war effort lose diplomatic legitimacy. After all, one of the main points for the invasion of Afghanistan in the first place was not only going after terrorists, but also “spreading democracy”. Thus, it is important to hold a show of fair political representation in Afghanistan so that, years down the road, it can be claimed that there was effort made in installing a legitimate and democratically elected government.

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Hamid Karzai has been in power for almost the entirety of America’s official involvement in Afghanistan. His rule is viewed as illegitimate by many of the Afghans. In addition, representation in Afghan cultures is different from the Western idea of a representative voting system. The Afghans entrust their elders to cast the village’s votes. The EU and US officials tend to view this as infringement upon the newly created and enforced electoral system in Afghanistan - thus the claims of overwhelming fraud and other such violations.

The current election process was bound not to go the way that it was supposed to. The Taliban are not going to sit on their butts and see their former area of rule desecrated by the villainous Westerners. It was to be expected that they were going to step up their operations in Afghanistan. There was most likely a sense of false safety inside Kabul. Also, taking into account Pakistan’s efforts in South Waziristan, some top officials may have thought that the main efforts of the Taliban would be concentrated on repelling the Pakistani Army. And yet, the Taliban have managed to deal heavy blows to the NATO presence and UN operations in Afghanistan.

Regardless of the candidate that wins the next election in Afghanistan, what will happen is that they will be the façade of US power in Afghanistan. As most Afghans do not view the current leadership as a central theme to be rallied around, the purpose of the governing body is lost. If the people do not have faith in the government, the government is only legitimate on paper. Well, it is radical to say that all Afghans oppose the leadership. On the contrary, the Afghans mainly oppose the fact that the leadership is led and manipulated by external governments.

Reading the recent news about the elections and the bombing in Afghanistan, it becomes ever more clear that the current US strategy of “democratizing” the Afghans is failing. It is not to say that that endeavor was destined for failure from the beginning. The strategy needs to implement the local governing traditions and customs. It is impossible to change a culture in a short amount of time. It is a lot easier to work with the flow than trying to redirect it in a completely different direction.

Show comments (1)
michaelhockney

01 November, 2009, 17:05

What I find quite amazing is the inability of the foreign forces in Afghanistan to undertake any serious reasoning of their actions. Eight years into a war you think this wouldhave happened. It has not apart from a few isolatedmutterings from Nato generals which are quickly buried or treated as unpatriotic.To be involved in a war of any kind is by definition "a failure". A failure of diplomatic abilities as well as a failure of moral high ground; even if you are forced into a war. We have not advanced very far at all from Victoria gun boat diplomacy days. Historians essentially ridicule the events leading up to the first world war as if the magnitude of such a diplomatic folly will never happen again. Well actually it is. The folly of the saving and democratization of Afghanistanand the holy war the west is waging on Islam. The CIA, Mosad, Nato etc have been impotent in their ability to capture osama Bin Laden.It has becomea joke. The most powerful and technologically advanced nations cannot find him. One could understand a year or so,possibly 2, but no capture in 8 years? The reason is staring them right in the face. The war is not about technology. It is not Desert Storm played on a flat desert. The reason is also the very reason the USSR pulled out. The Afghan terrain makes it impossible for foreignmilitary victory. What is inevitable is that many more Afghan civilians,nato trops and Taliban will die. I will bet you anything you like that in 10 years nato and everyone else will be gone and the historians will write their academic reports on another foreign intervention disaster in Afghanistan. I will also bet something else. Nowone from Nato command has made a call to The Russian military to get some expert first-hand advice on how to conduct military operations in Afghanistan. Someone might say well The Russians were there years ago under different circumstances. true but this underlines the exact reason why Nato is doomed to fail here. This is a holy war that is fought in terms of decades or centuries. The Soviet time-line is indeed very relevant in the eyes of Afghans.


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About author

My name is Alexey Sazonov. I was 11 years old when I came to United States from St. Petersburg, Russia. I have been interested in politics my whole life. I believe in rational thinking, especially when it comes to politics. Political analysis should be unbiased and verified. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions and loyalties. However, public news and analysis should be based on multiple sources and facts.

I am currently a student at University of Illinois at Chicago, majoring in Economics, with minors in International Business and Political Science. I believe it is everyone's essential duty to understand the politics of today's world for everyone on this planet is effected by world leaders' daily decisions.

“With words we govern men” – Disraeli.