Peter Lavelle

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29 May, 2009, 13:11
North Korea and the inevitable

Is it inevitable that the world will have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power? For now the international community is committed to a denuclearized Korean peninsula. The world may be forced to reconsider this proposition.

We have seen countries consider development of a nuclear weapon (or in possession of such technology), but later change their position (almost always under pressure from the international community and the West in particular). Libya did, after being made into a pariah in the West, though not in the rest of the world. South Africa came clean on its weapons program after the apartheid regime relinquished power. Ukraine actually inherited an arsenal when the Soviet Union collapsed, only to later, and wisely, relinquish them to Russia. South Korea has seriously given thought to building its own nuclear deterrent, but to this day it has accepted American security guarantees instead.

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Then there is the other side of the coin – countries that did drive toward nuclear status in spite of international concern or even condemnation. It is widely believed that Israel has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons. However, because of its special status as part of Washington’s strategic thinking, Israel is allowed a special indulgence around and in defiance of international law. Pakistan and India are also in the nuclear arms club. The other members of the club, over the years, have bowed to this political reality.

Many believe Iran aspires to join the nuclear arms club. It claims otherwise and also claims it is in compliance with its international obligations on the issue. According to Tehran it is only interested in peaceful use of nuclear power. This story is ongoing and remains to be played out.

North Korea is in a category of its own. It has contempt for anything it has signed regarding weapons development. In fact, it has shown that it can use words of conciliation while planning to up the ante to get what it wants. This is where we are at. Not only is North Korea a member of the nuclear club, but it also demands to remain in the club and use membership to green-mail the entire world to secure the country’s sovereignty and extort badly needed aid.

I find it very odd that the mainstream continues to regard North Korea as a crazy or irrational state. The opposite is true. North Korea is acting in a way that is very pragmatic given its international standing and domestic conditions. It is simply wishful thinking to assume North Korea will disarm because others countries have done so in the past. Those countries had many reasons to reverse course – North Korea doesn’t.

Hopefully, long and hard negotiations are ahead and not a conflict of any kind, but it should be remembered and reflected upon how North Korea has taken extreme advantage of the poor state of the current international non-proliferation regime. This has happened because the West has been too selective on its implementation. Now we are being made to pay the price for this negligence.

Nothing is inevitable, I suppose, but I won’t be surprised that the world will eventually have to accept a nuclear North Korea and a very much nuclearized northeast Asia. The alternative is to destroy the North Korean regime. Is the world prepared to do this? I think not. The negligence and complacence of the past is catching up with us.

Show comments (26)
Count Cash

02 June, 2009, 20:21

Meslin - Of course you are right, people are much the same wherever you go. Bringing people together and creating secure enviroments is what it is all about, to create and maintain peace. If the USA had paid for 100,000 American mums to meet Iaqi mums, it would have made a far better contribution to changing Iraq than sending even a single soldier. However, security is the key word here, and that only comes with being able to deter an aggressor. Sadly at the moment Nuclear weapons are the only way to hold back US and NATO, who are ideologically driven without respect for other nations, customs and people. I do like the idea of a controlled central deterrence umbrella against likely further US and NATO agression, to pretect smaller states, and remove their need for nuclear weapons. However, it would have to be credible, for people to buy into. Without a deterrent, I assure you, you will have more wars, more deaths and more suffering, a sad thing, but reality all the same.


Meslin

02 June, 2009, 18:26

Mr Lavelle.
Riding the comments that you have received about North-Korea make me wonder about the ratio of our species'stupidity. In my 70 years of living, I had the chance to know americans in their country; russians, also in their country, africans and south-americans (same way). There is good and bad peoples everywhere. The average human, regardless of his color, religion or political aspiration is a decent person The main problems are human-nature and
leaderships.
I have no hard feelings toward the USA or France or anybody else; but I studied the American constitution and it french equivalent. It is difficult to understand why those documents have been so quickly ignored.
It is no good for badly governed nations, to have nuclear arms but our main objectif is to have a total denuclearisation. This could be obtained only with the major powers showing the good example. In that crazy world, we are very far from it and nearer and nearer fom our own species' total extinction Radical changes are an urgent necessity. Beckering about a nation or an other is a waste of time and energy.We need a usefull and absolutly neutral ONU, not under influence or residing in the USA, Russia etc.
(same apply for every other planetary institution). Since America pretend to be the leader; she must accept to be judged. Needless to make a bilan of her last 60 years' actions to realize that its imperialist attitude has done more harm than good to Humanity. (This can be objectively discussed with anyone who desagree).
Sorry Future Generations ! Jean-Claude Meslin


Count Cash

02 June, 2009, 18:26

BillyBob - now I always worry about criminals with form; now is there any one we shouldn't trust, like someone who has used nuclear weapons against civilian targets as a direct premeditated act. Can you think of anyone I shouldn't trust BillyBob? Now as for dictatorships, you know the Democraps and the Republicants, the mafia families, aren't we a bit worried about a two headed dictatorship just a trifle. I suppose next you will tell me Americans won't torture you, I like your fairytales BillyBob, you might win Eurovision with them.


johnx

02 June, 2009, 17:50

@David

I wasn’t comparing the North Korean regime to Israel I was just mentioning that genetic weapons is the next big weapon.
Personally I couldn’t care less what is going on in the Middle East I’m more concerned what’s happening in Europe with the likes of George Soros stirring up trouble in the Balkans and in and near Russia.

@BillyBob

When I was mentioning the genetic bomb I meant that in reference to nuclear weapons this seems to be the next big weapon that everyone or at least the main countries are trying to develop. I only referenced Israel as that is the country that was referenced in the article about genetic weapons. It was a general comment it wasn’t direct at you personally that why I separated it before writing another comment directed at you but because of the format layout of text when it gets published its laid out in one block of text.


BillyBob

02 June, 2009, 15:41

johnx, my point is that regardless of what the US does, i hear a lot of comments that are supportive to North Korea, which is a dictatorship. North Korea's self preservation lies in the hands of Kim Jung Il, a madman. The people living there are screwed. A dictatorship is crazy, and crazy people shouldn't control nuclear weapons. A really simple concept.

In 2009, any country that has an elected government, will be more responsible with nuclear weapons. Any country that is tied economically to world will be more responsible with nuclear weapons.

Is anyone worried about Obama detonating a nuclear bomb, or Sarkosy? No. Is anyonw worried about North Korea or Iran, Yes! Both are run by a few crazy individuals that do not represent the population within the country.

As for the Isreal comments. I am an American and could care less about Israel and Palestine. Both have blood on their hands, and both are there for some crazy RELIGIOUS revelation. The US is screwed by getting involved here.

Anyways, good luck to us all.


JayCee

02 June, 2009, 15:12

Thanks to both Peter and Bianca for the insights.


Marzipan6

02 June, 2009, 13:03

You are right, R John, people are just people anywhere. But governments are not the same everywhere, and some of them do some very, very unfortunate and damaging things to people. In general, democratic governments exist more or less to facilitate the wish of the people, while despotic regimes exist to crush people, befuddle their thinking, damage their psychological health through terror driven personality cults, distort their view of everything in closed societies where no aspect of the outside world can reach them, all for the sake of keeping the ruling criminal clique in power. Stalinist states are like that, John. Stalinist Russia was, and the Russian people still haven’t recovered from it. I am from a country that suffered Stalinist occupation, and it would make your hair stand on end if you truly grasped the horror of what Stalinist rule actually meant and did. North Korea is currently such a country, and no recovery process there has even begun to be contemplated yet, the mass damage is still being sown. All experience of Stalinist societies demonstrates that it is not possible to deal with those countries as if they are normal, for the simple reason that they are not.


lolo

02 June, 2009, 12:13

Exactly, there is a huge difference btwn North Korea and Israel. Israel is illegally occupying and killing Palestinains and Lebanese civilians at will and in the name of God. North Korea does not occupy or kill other people. That is the major difference.


David

02 June, 2009, 08:10

It you can't make distinctions between Israel and North Korea you need to get out a little more, maybe do some reading.


johnx

02 June, 2009, 00:14

It’s been speculated that Israel is developing genetic weapons and I would probably presume the US and other major countries.

@Billy Bob

Peter is an American himself how does he hate America?

I think the point of his article is that Washington’s strong arm approach in Iraq won’t work against North Korea.
That the North Korean regime is using its nuclear arsenal to gather attention to pressure Washington into direct negotiations so it can negotiate aid for self preservation.
That it is not going to give up it’s nuclear arsenal which is it’s only bargaining chip.

He didn’t say the regime was good or it’s economic and political model.


Billy Bob

01 June, 2009, 15:16

Just because you hate the US, you should still use common sense in your opinion of North Korea.

If North Korea and Kim Jung Il are so rational, and good for the people of N. Korea, I dare you to move to that country.

Look at how much growth and prosperity has occured in South Korea, they are a really smart people, peaceful democracy, with a huge opportunity for further prosperity. North Korea (geographically the same people) have been driven into there current situation by a failed ex-Soviet era regime. Their model doesn't work, but everyone on this board seems to be blindly be supportive of N. Korea, b/c they don't like the U.S.


R John

01 June, 2009, 12:59

As a youngster because of the way the Soviets were portrayed in the media and through films I had this perception of this group of drone like fanatics ready to invade my country and slit my throat at the drop of a hat. After the end of the soviet regime Russia opened up and on the other side of the iron curtain what we found were people like us, mostly decent family minded human beings who just wanted a better life for themselves and their families.
This same vilification process is happening with North Korea. This is a scared poor nation, millions of its people are starving, and more sanctions could lead to an implosion and humanitarian catastrophes. I believe there is an internal power struggle going on, for now we should take a step back and leave ourselves an option to negotiate with any new leadership that may emerge. I don’t believe the North Koreans would try to launch a nuclear strike after all they have exercised military restraint since the end of the Korean War. The real danger is that this country collapses and rouge elements may decide to sell nuclear weapons to terrorist groups. China/Russia’s more measured approach is the correct one.


Meslin

01 June, 2009, 11:22

Mr Lavelle.
This forum should be called: America and the inevitable; because when you don't bind over and refuse the capitalist way of life and way of thinking you take tremendeous risks.
De Gaulle created his retaliation nuclear force for that purpose. After seeing what happened in the past 60 years, all over the world, that rule has never been so evident. As I explained several times before; unless we have the courage to face the facts and take radical measures, the situation will get worse and worse and mankind's chance of survival will diminish year after year. North-Korea or Iran's nuclear arsenal mean nothing; what count is the already 25000 bombs existing now and knowing that this number will keep on increasing, regardless of what the super-powers will say. The real ennemy and cause of all troubles is the arrogant way of thinking and doing business of the capitalist which, actually control the whole globalisation. The masters of that insane system have no patriotic feelings and don't care about countries' actual borders. They are only concerned about power and money. Look how hard americans try to involve other nations (including Russia) in that useless anti-missiles shield and NATO which since the 1980s has already costed 100s billions $ to the US taxpayers (and other nations' TP).
Unless, we take conscience of that reality and take urgent measures (starting in July, in Moscow) we will be getting closer and closer to catastrophy. The BRIC nations missed a first opportunity to call the shots in the London G-20 and put America in front of its responsabilities. (No other country has 700 military installations, all over the World and was and still is the initiator of all WMD that mankind possess. If no positive answer is obtained, then it should be easer for the 95% of humans who are not US citizen to do what America does so well to others: a well planed boycoott. I will organise it myself if necessary and I bet you that the american citizen will quickly react and get ride of the few thousands crooks who have abused them for so long. North-Korea, Iran and those who will follow are just scapegoats, the real problems are those who have thousands of nuclear bombs on stock (this include Russia and first of all the imperialist, arrogant USA and his NATO ' s puppets). Sorry Future Generations
That is all, that I can do for you today ! Jean-Claude Meslin


lolo

01 June, 2009, 10:16

I agree fully with David Owen, Bianca and Count Cash. Peter’s column is for once very disappointing. There is no mention of the fact that North Korea has been deceived by America, they were promised aid that never arrived. There is also no mention of the fact that America has repeatedly called North Korea the ‘Axis of Evil’. There is no mention of the fact that the other country America has called the ‘Axis of Evil’ (Iraq) has been invaded and their people raped by American soldiers. Why do you want North Korea to sit around waiting for the inevitable, the American invasion? Why do you want North Korea to be completely defenceless? You have not mentioned that South Korea is crawling with heavily armed American soldiers, 28 000 of them.
Why isn’t this propaganda looking at the Pakistani situation, a country with nukes that could fall into the hands of terrorists. Why haven’t you mentioned that North Korea’s nukes are not in danger of falling into the hands of terrorists? Why doesn’t America inspect Pakistani ships and impose sanctions against Pakistan? Why do they pick on North Korea?
And those who say China must control North Korea??? Since when does China go around controlling and colonizing other people? Just because America, Britain and France see nothing wrong in colonizing and raping other people, doesn’t mean that the rest of us will do the same.
Russia and China don’t care about North Korea’s nukes because they know the government controls them. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s nukes could easily be controlled by the Taliban.


rodrigo

31 May, 2009, 21:59

Hi,Peter I agree with you in this matter that North Korea is going to be a nuclear state,but as you said I dont think that the world is prepared to change the regime is to dangerous,but I would said is that the Chinese have the key to make some pressure to the North Korean government because China supplies 80% of the oil they consume and everything else so if China wants to cool down the situation China is the only one who can do something about it,look North Korea is under multiple sanctions from the UN and nothing happens,everything is going in the opposite direction so the only thing left is that China needs to take some serious steps to control Pyongyang if China doesn't take the steps needed Pyongyang will continue with this kind of behavior,so in other words China has to step up to this guys or the situation really can get out of control and a lot of people is jeopardy so i hope the Chinese will get serious about this situation because the less we need is another war in the world we have enough wars already in play.

Best regards from Guatemala

Rodrigo


IndianaJohn

31 May, 2009, 18:01

Here in the wilds of Indiana, USA. I thae great comfort in the fact that my neighbors are well armed. Nations are to be well armed too.


Marzipan6

31 May, 2009, 06:39

North Korea is universally described as a Stalinist state. While this term does not have a precise definition, it implies an oppressive system of government that maintains its authority by “purging” (ie, killing or imprisoning) opposition elements, terrorizing the civilian population through spying and extra-judicial punishment, gross propaganda which distorts all internal and external events to the bias of the leadership, and maintaining a personality cult which insists that a leader can do no wrong. Prolonged imposition of Stalinism produces a country and a people who collectively exhibit symptoms of paranoia, who grow badly out of touch with reality and who eventually end up holding perceptions of just about everything that differ fundamentally with those of the rest of the world, and puts them at odds with everyone else. There was a time not so very long ago when Russia also was a Stalinist state – in fact, it was the original model. Unlike North Korea, it has been able to painfully struggle free from the shackles of Stalinism, and from some of its legacies. But only some. Consistent with classical Stalinist propaganda, Stalin himself is still revered as a great man, not totally removed from the “dear leader” appellation of Kim Jong-il, Stalin’s colossal blunders in the conduct the war are overlooked (“the leader can do no wrong”), his brutalities against his own people are glossed over (Stalinism brooks no criticism) and Stalin’s paranoia of being surrounded by enemies is affirmed by angrily describing as “re-writing of history” any account of Stalin’s own aggression against neighbouring countries. Russia deserves respect and praise for its gains so far in struggling free of Stalinism – that path is not an easy one. And it both deserves, and is being sent, a clear message from its neighbours that this progress needs to continue until it at last emerges completely from Stalinism’s baleful legacy.


KJ

30 May, 2009, 04:17

What we have left with North Korea is the remnants of Stalinist ideology. They act in a sort of irrantional rationality because it does not have a balance of power, has a statist hereditary monarchy, and use extortion to get its way. Why Peter you get show suprised that the US actually influences world policy is obscene and tinges on anti-Americanism. North Korea is a byproduct of Soviet-Russian thought, post Soviet Afghanistan is a byproduct of exporting Stalinist ideology, while the US aided those Afghanis to fight for their own liberation in the form of the Muhajadeen, a quasi-secular group today helping the US. And in stark contrast South Korea, a country following the ideals of America, and that simply is capitalist Democracy. And you wonder why people have sentimental feelings against Stalin and the exported Communism that came from Russia.


Bianca

30 May, 2009, 03:47

I must say I am disappointed in this assessment of North Korea. It falls into the narrative so conveniently created for the news consuming public. According to THE "narrative", North Korea is a strange place, with even stranger people, hungry and isolated, with a crazed desire to have nuclear weapons. And in the process, they are flouting all the norms of the international law! As we all aready know very well, using the standard narrative so neatly packaged in the West, can be very misleading. For one, one can be only modestly familiar with the history of negotiations to know for sure that every time North Korea fullfilled one or more of its conditions, the West simply refused to do its end of a bargain. So, we are back where we started. The comedy here is --- North Korea expected such outcome, and is proceeding with the nuclear development. Being named "axes of evil", it had no choice. Being invaded is not fun. Iraq became an abject lesson: if you cannot defend yourself, you will be invaded, occupied and held down for the forseable future.

Have you not noticed that China and Russia do not seem to worry about North Korean nukes? They are naturally concerned about proliferation, but not about their own safety.

Have you not noticed that in order to make Korean Penninsula nuke-free, US nuclear capabilities will have to be removed from the area. For as long as South Korea enjoys US "nuclear umbrella", Korean Penninsula is not safe for the North.

Have you not noticed that the North Korean crisis suits Chinese and Russian geopolitical interests perfectly. It is hard to US to focus on Iran's presumed "nuclear program", for as long as another country is exploding nuclear devices.

Now, there will be many attempts in US to downplay this. There will be theories that the "test failed', and that it was not really anything but the "attention getter", etc. Everything will be tried to get North Korea off the international agenda, so that the nuclear histeria can be refocused on Iran.

The problem is, North Korea withdrew from NPT, while Iran not only is the signatory, but has an enhanced inspections regime adopted unilaterally. North Korea will, however, make it very hard for US to go back to hector Iran. It will keep on reminding evreryone that it will remain a serious player in the nuclear club.

As for the "aid", and such, hopefully we will get some real information about the life in the country, not propaganda. Something about the prepackaged stories just does not pass the smell test.


williammarkclarke@gmail.com

29 May, 2009, 16:51

Peter,

Here is what may happen based on the past. The leader of North Korea will ratchet it up when he realize that the world is against him. He has launched missiles in every direction except to China, Russia and South Korea.

If the United Nations permits the boarding of North Korean ships in transit, that in the North Korean leaders will eye this as an act of war. The North Korean military will be placed on alert and prepared to launch over one thousand missiles into Seoul. The very worst case scenario will be launching one of those missiles that has a Nuclear payload obliterating a city such as Seoul or even sending a missile into Japan. That part of the world go go up in flames in minutes to hours. Fathom the possibilities.

It is to be hoped that China and Russia can “talk” to the leader of North Korea and advise him of the alternatives.

William Mark Clarke


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About author

Peter Lavelle is the host of RT's week in review programme In Context, and was the anchor of the commentary series IMHO (In my humble opinion). And RT viewers can expect to find Peter in the news studio commenting on breaking events. This includes live press conferences and when decision makers meet anywhere in the world.

Peter Lavelle has extensive experience in academia and the world of business. He did his doctoral studies at the University of California in Eastern European and Russian studies. He has lived in Eastern Europe and Russia for a better part of the last 25 years. During that time he was a lecturer at the University of Warsaw, a market researcher for Colgate-Palmolive, an investment analyst for a number of respected brokerage firms, including Russia’s Alfa Bank.

In the realm of media, Peter Lavelle is widely published. He has written for Asia Times Online, Moscow Times, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, United Press International, In the National Interest, and Current History – to mention only a few.

Peter enjoys reading, films, long walks through Moscow, and caring for his two dogs. Viewers are invited to read his daily blog, below.

Peter Lavelle also has an Internet discussion group on Russia:

http://groups.google.com/group/Untimely_Thoughts_An_Expert_Discussion_Group_on_Russia