Peter Lavelle

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03 July, 2009, 11:45
Obama: Tandem buster?

Speaking with the Associated Press before his departure for Russia; US President Barack Obama gave every impression that he intends to play Russia President Dmitry Medvedev off against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This is naive and very dangerous. Moreover, such an approach will not result in “resetting” Russia-US relations.

Either Obama believes he has already mastered Russian politics (assuming that is even possible among us who are hardcore Russia-watchers) or he is being given some very bad advice.
Irrespective of which, the US president never should have said the following in public:

“…Prime Minister Putin still has a lot of sway in Russia, and I think that it's important that even as we move forward with President Medvedev, that Putin understands that the old Cold War approaches to U.S.-Russian relations is outdated, that it's time to move forward in a different direction. I think Medvedev understands that. I think Putin has one foot in the old ways of doing business and one foot in the new. And to the extent that we can provide him and the Russian people a clear sense that the U.S. is not seeking an antagonistic relationship, but wants cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation, fighting terrorism, energy issues - that we'll end up having a stronger partner overall in this process.”

In Russia today, it is simply impossible to play Medvedev off against Putin. Both represent the same policy approaches, including foreign policies, but in different ways. As I have stated in the past, both are modernizers, with Medvedev taking more of a liberal trajectory and Putin more of a statist. At this point in time, both approaches need the other be to effective. Obama can in no way divide the two.

I still find it odd the western mainstream continues to see what they want to see in Medvedev and Putin. Medvedev is liked because he isn’t Putin. This has nothing to do with politics and policy – just simply misplaced perceptions that are only self-serving. (It needs to be remembered that a great deal of Medvedev’s popularity at home comes from the trust Putin has in him).

Additionally, no one in Russia’s political elite would ever think about “choosing” one member of the tandem over the other when it comes to foreign policy, and to please the leader of another country.

As far as where the tandem has its feet, I can only say they are on solid ground remembering the past and moving forward.

I certainly hope the upcoming summit will proceed better than Obama’s initial remarks would indicate. He needs better advice than he’s getting at the moment.

Show comments (10)
JK

03 July, 2009, 18:27

In any serious conversation, if and as long one side keeps on following the "divide and conquer strategy" there can be no meaningful deal.

In fact Bush followed this strategy from the outset. Why should Obama continue with that if he wishes to improve the world we live in?

Each side should, to the best of its ability, examine its true motives prior to sitting down at the table, instead of just simply following its own selfish interests.

JK


Bear

03 July, 2009, 17:10

Ha ha I must say it made me laugh when I heard what Mr. Obama said. Mr. Obama obviously expects from Mr. Medvedev to behave like himself - to be a puppet who does not use his own head. But what Mr. Obambi's advisers didn't know is that Russia is a serious country having serious people (both President and Prime minister) leading it in serious times. What a poor move of a desperate USA! If they didn't manage to think something better they better don't come to Russia.


MEJanssen

03 July, 2009, 15:43

@Ikenna Aduaka, I fear your comment about our president is correct. The American political "machine" selects the candidates, and nobody will be elected without a majority of their advisors coming from the "machine". I will look at whoever is near Obama's elbow when he arrives in Moscow. Those people will be involved in writing Obama's "talking points".

I still have hope that Obama will make some observations of his own and use his own words. Maybe by next year's Congressional elections, he will have decided which of his advisors to keep and which to "retire". That sometimes happens during a president's first term. Meanwhile, he has to be careful what he says and not stray too far from the party line. After all, we killed a president years ago for saying the wrong things.


george

03 July, 2009, 13:40

I think Obama is intimidated by Putin. Most world leaders are.

When does Obama start to show the "change we can believe in?"


Ikenna Aduaka

03 July, 2009, 10:49

When ew talk about some leader being a Puppet, I can categorically say that Obama is simply a Puppet. If anyone wants to challenge me on that, I will give him or her facts.

Obama really dissapointed me. Putin is the greatest leader of our time, every country wants to have a Putin. It is a pity that Obama cannot be "American Putin"


Rikard Baric

03 July, 2009, 10:48

…just another brick in the wall…
He is not capable to grow.


NickF

03 July, 2009, 10:24

As time passes, slowly, Obama takes off his mask, revealing his real face. How democratic his comments really are ? What are his intentions ? He behaves very strange. I can't get it ...


Meslin

03 July, 2009, 10:21

Mr Putin scare americans leaders, because they know that they cannot manipulate him.
Mr Medvedev, coming from the russian business communauty could be easely to manage. The two russian leaders must stick together, beware of the many US dirty tricks and speak firmly and frankly to Earth.
Sincerely. Jean-Claude Meslin


Tomas

03 July, 2009, 10:21

It seems his advisors want to make an internal strife so they could create a situation like in Ukraine. Seems to me that was cheap attempt, as to make from mr. Medvedev another Juščenko-type puppet. To me hes no way an opportunist as neo´s would want to see him, thinking he´s inexperienced and able to be manipulated. Obama should get an answer that he has no right to do anything with any other country´s internal affairs, and in turn Russsia needs to press them instead of being always on the defensive. Defensive means they can lie about you and you trying to prove it is lies, while their dark side remains unattended to and spreading its power over the minds of simple people.


lolo

03 July, 2009, 10:10

I was just as shocked as you Peter, I wanted to hide! Obama says he has a very good relationship with Medvedev, is he aware that with 1 word from Putin, Medvedev will never speak to him again? Obama does not need new advisors, he needs to be a leader.


01 July, 2009, 08:52
Derailing Medvedev and Obama
18 June, 2009, 20:25
Saakashvili’s lipstick artist
About author

Peter Lavelle is the host of RT's week in review programme In Context, and was the anchor of the commentary series IMHO (In my humble opinion). And RT viewers can expect to find Peter in the news studio commenting on breaking events. This includes live press conferences and when decision makers meet anywhere in the world.

Peter Lavelle has extensive experience in academia and the world of business. He did his doctoral studies at the University of California in Eastern European and Russian studies. He has lived in Eastern Europe and Russia for a better part of the last 25 years. During that time he was a lecturer at the University of Warsaw, a market researcher for Colgate-Palmolive, an investment analyst for a number of respected brokerage firms, including Russia’s Alfa Bank.

In the realm of media, Peter Lavelle is widely published. He has written for Asia Times Online, Moscow Times, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, United Press International, In the National Interest, and Current History – to mention only a few.

Peter enjoys reading, films, long walks through Moscow, and caring for his two dogs. Viewers are invited to read his daily blog, below.

Peter Lavelle also has an Internet discussion group on Russia:

http://groups.google.com/group/Untimely_Thoughts_An_Expert_Discussion_Group_on_Russia

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